MY BLOGS
Phoenix Housing Market Weakens Further in 2025: CMI Drops 8% as 15 Cities Decline
The real estate market continues to show signs of weakening for sellers compared to the previous week. Currently, 15 cities have seen a decline in market conditions over the past month, with Mesa and Gilbert now joining the 13 cities that were already experiencing deterioration. In contrast, only
Why Median Beats Average: Understanding Home Prices in Phoenix’s Skewed Housing Market
Understanding the difference between averages and medians is crucial when analyzing housing market data. Experts estimate that 70% to 80% of people do not fully grasp the distinction between these two statistical measures, which can lead to misleading conclusions. While many people use "average,"
Greater Phoenix Housing Market Update: Buyer Power Grows in Key Cities as Inventory Builds
The real estate market has taken a noticeable turn compared to last week, with conditions shifting in favor of buyers in several cities. Currently, eight cities have seen a decline in seller-friendly conditions over the past month, with Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, and Glendale joining the five c
Maricopa County New Home Market Slows in 2025 Amid Tariffs, Labor Shortages, and Policy Pressures
The new home market in Maricopa County has seen a notable decline over the past six months, as evidenced by monthly affidavit counts. New homes have steadily lost market share to re-sales, dropping from 28% in December 2023 to 24% in December 2024. This shift suggests a weakening demand for new h
Phoenix Housing Market 2025: Active Listings Surge 12% as Buyer Demand Growth Slows
Since the beginning of this year, the active listing count has increased by 2,324, representing an 11.9% rise. This growth rate surpasses the 8.1% increase seen during the same period last year, and it builds upon a base of 19,460 compared to 14,593 in 2024. These figures indicate that the supply
December Jobs Report Shows Mixed Signals: Labor Market Cools as Home Prices Hold Steady
December’s headline job growth figure, released on Friday, suggests a robust labor market, though it is subject to revision in subsequent reports. The initial data showed strength in multiple areas, including increases in both full-time and part-time employment after declines in November. However
Phoenix Real Estate Market Rebounds in Early 2025: CMI Up 8.8% Across 15 Cities
This week marks a notable improvement in the real estate market for sellers compared to the previous month. Data from the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) reveals that 15 major cities have experienced an increase in their index over the past month, while only 2 have shown a decline. This positive shi
Seller Confidence Grows in Phoenix Real Estate: CMI Rises 6.2% Across 14 Cities
This week marks a notable improvement in the market for sellers compared to last month. Fourteen large cities have reported an increase in their Cromford® Market Index (CMI) over the past month, while only three have experienced a decline. This positive trend highlights a significant shift, with
Fed Cuts Rates, But Mortgage Rates Climb: What Buyers Need to Know
The Federal Reserve implemented its third interest rate cut of 2024 on Wednesday, reducing its benchmark rate by 0.25 points. However, this adjustment did not translate into a decrease in mortgage rates. Instead, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiked to 6.72% for the week ending December 19, acc
Pinal County Home Values Down 17% From Peak When Adjusting for Inflation and Concessions
At a median sales price of $371,090, Pinal County’s housing market has experienced a decline of just over 8% from its peak of $405,000, which was reached during the second quarter of 2022. The majority of this drop occurred between June 2022 and February 2023. Since the first quarter of 2023, pri
Maricopa County Housing Market Shows Year-Over-Year Growth Despite Seasonal Slowdown
The November affidavits of value for Maricopa County have been tallied, providing an insightful overview of the real estate market's performance. The month saw 5,393 closed transactions, marking a 10.4% increase compared to November 2023's 4,887 but a 12.3% decline from October 2024. Among these
Phoenix Housing Market Hits Coldest Point Since 2009
The contract ratio for all areas and property types has fallen below 30, indicating a notable cooling in the real estate market. Currently, at 29.6, this is the lowest contract ratio recorded since April 2009, a period marked by significant market challenges. This sharp decline highlights a shift
Phoenix-Area Housing Market Cools Unevenly as Buyer Power Grows
Over the past month, six large cities have shown an increase in their Cromford® Market Index (CMI), continuing the trend observed last week. The average change in CMI across all cities is a decline of 4.2%, which is a slight improvement compared to the 4.8% decline seen the previous week. While
Phoenix-Area Real Estate Shows Mixed Signals as Buyer-Seller Balance Shifts
Over the past month, six large cities have shown an increase in their Cromford® Market Index (CMI), marking an improvement from last week when only five cities were trending upward. Avondale's shift in direction accounts for the rise of additional cities. Meanwhile, the average change in CMI over
Phoenix Housing Inventory Spikes in November—Breaking Seasonal Trends
In 2024, the active listing trend has taken an unusual and unexpected turn, visible in a recent spike in available listings. Represented in light blue, the 2024 trend line reveals a sharp jump over the last two days, with listings approaching the 22,000 mark. This sudden increase has pushed 2024'
Rising Inventory Shifts Phoenix Housing Market Toward Buyers
Over the past eight months, the real estate market has increasingly turned against sellers, who might instinctively attribute this shift to weakened buyer demand and persistently high interest rates. However, the primary cause of this change appears to be an increasing supply of available propert
Phoenix Housing Market Reacts as Mortgage Rates Climb Back to 7%
The mortgage rate news has been unfavorable over the past week, with the typical 30-year fixed rate climbing to approximately 6.91% today from 6.68% last week. This increase brings rates back up to the levels observed in late July, marking a significant rise that could impact housing affordabilit
Why Listing Success Rate Beats Days on Market for Real Insight
The Listing Success Rate is one of the most revealing and reliable indicators of the housing market's health, yet it is seldom measured except by the Cromford Report. In stark contrast, the average days on the market is a comparatively dull and meaningless statistic, though it is measured and rep
Buyer Leverage Grows as Market Shifts This October in Phoenix
The brief surge in demand observed during September is beginning to wane, with the number of listings under contract now somewhat lower than in late September. Meanwhile, active supply continues to grow in line with seasonal patterns. This gradual increase in inventory is slowly shifting negotiat
September Home Sales Drop in Maricopa County as Prices Hold Steady
In September 2024, Maricopa County's real estate market witnessed a noticeable decline in closed transactions for single-family homes and townhouses/condos, as revealed by the recently analyzed affidavits of value. The total number of closed transactions stood at 5,584, marking a decrease of 5.3%
Nick Calamia
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