Market Intelligence Report
Phoenix Metro & Scottsdale
Market Intelligence
Report
The metro shifted a notch toward balance this summer: supply climbed to 3.4 months, over half of active listings have cut price, and a luxury pre-market pipeline is quietly building in Paradise Valley and Arcadia.
18.6%
Cash Share
of closings
3.4
Months Supply
metro-wide
2,114
New Permits
▼ 1.2% YoY
54.6%
Actives Reduced
list-price cuts
What You Need to Know
Sellers: Supply climbed to 3.4 months and the blanket seller advantage is gone: 42 of 106 measured zips still tilt your way, but most now sit balanced. Pricing right on day one is no longer a nice-to-have. Core Chandler, Ahwatukee, and north Phoenix zips still clear in weeks; overpriced listings are feeding the 55% reduction pile.
Buyers: Nineteen zips now carry five-plus months of supply, mostly the far-west and fringe corridors. In the luxury core, watch the pre-market: Paradise Valley and Arcadia have some of the metro's highest coming-soon ratios right now, so the best inventory is visible to agents weeks before it hits the portals.
Buyers: Nineteen zips now carry five-plus months of supply, mostly the far-west and fringe corridors. In the luxury core, watch the pre-market: Paradise Valley and Arcadia have some of the metro's highest coming-soon ratios right now, so the best inventory is visible to agents weeks before it hits the portals.
Section 01: Cash Buyer Concentration
Cash Buyer Intelligence
Where cash concentrates, deals move differently. This maps the metro's highest cash-buyer zip codes and what that liquidity does to closing speed.
Cash Buyer Ratio by Zip Code
Cash vs. Financed Closing Speed
85257 Scottsdale
13
Cash DOM
74
Fin. DOM
60 days faster
85248 Sun Lakes
32
Cash DOM
71
Fin. DOM
38 days faster
85298 Gilbert
20
Cash DOM
54
Fin. DOM
34 days faster
Key Signal
85262 Scottsdale leads the metro at 54.3% cash, and the entire top ten is a Scottsdale, Gilbert, or luxury-retirement corridor. The speed gap is stark: in 85257 Scottsdale, the median cash deal closes in 13 days against 74 for financed, a 60-day advantage sellers price for.
Section 02: Future Supply Signal
Building Permit Pipeline
Permits are the earliest read on future supply. Every home permitted today becomes inventory roughly a year and a half out, so the direction here shapes tomorrow's competition.
2,114
▼ 1.2% YoY
June Permits
22,554
▼ 18.5%
Trailing 12 Mo
2,681
Oct 2024
24-Mo Peak
▼ 21%
off peak
Latest vs Peak
Single-Family Permits
Key Signal
June came in at 2,114 permits, essentially flat against last June and a clear bounce off the late-summer trough. The bigger picture hasn't turned: the trailing twelve months run 19% below the prior twelve and 21% off the October 2024 peak. Builders are stabilizing at a lower altitude, which keeps the future resale pipeline thin and supports existing-home values.
Section 03: Demand Depth
Absorption Rate
Months of supply is the truest measure of leverage: how long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace. Under three months favors sellers, over five favors buyers.
42
Zips ≤3 MoS
SELLER
45
Zips 3-5 MoS
BALANCED
19
Zips 5+ MoS
BUYER
| Zip | Area | Active | Sold | MoS | DOM | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85226 | Chandler | 46 | 38 | 1.2 | 63 | Seller |
| 85044 | Phoenix | 62 | 37 | 1.7 | 46 | Seller |
| 85033 | Phoenix | 42 | 25 | 1.7 | 46 | Seller |
| 85381 | Peoria | 53 | 31 | 1.7 | 65 | Seller |
| 85024 | Phoenix | 65 | 37 | 1.8 | 46 | Seller |
| 85266 | Scottsdale | 95 | 14 | 6.8 | 69 | Buyer |
| 85361 | Wittmann | 71 | 10 | 7.1 | 81 | Buyer |
| 85008 | Phoenix | 64 | 9 | 7.1 | 60 | Buyer |
| 85263 | Rio Verde | 45 | 6 | 7.5 | 102 | Buyer |
| 85354 | Tonopah | 93 | 10 | 9.3 | 72 | Buyer |
Key Signal
The leverage map rebalanced this summer: 42 zips still favor sellers, 45 sit balanced, and 19 have tipped to buyers. Core Chandler and Ahwatukee still clear in under two months while Tonopah, Rio Verde, and the far fringe carry seven-plus. The metro average hides two very different markets.
Section 04: Seller Pressure
Price Reduction Velocity
How fast and how deep sellers cut reveals real pricing power. A high reduction rate means the market is disciplining ambitious list prices before they ever sell.
| Zip | Area | Active | Reduced | Rate | Med. Cut % | Med. Cut $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85048 | Phoenix | 71 | 50 | 70% | 3.2% | $22,050 |
| 85015 | Phoenix | 59 | 40 | 68% | 4.5% | $22,550 |
| 85203 | Mesa | 57 | 38 | 67% | 3.3% | $17,700 |
| 85083 | Phoenix | 69 | 45 | 65% | 3.5% | $25,000 |
| 85225 | Chandler | 76 | 49 | 64% | 3.5% | $20,000 |
| 85050 | Phoenix | 76 | 48 | 63% | 4.6% | $33,562 |
| 85308 | Glendale | 160 | 101 | 63% | 3.9% | $20,000 |
| 85008 | Phoenix | 64 | 40 | 62% | 4.4% | $25,550 |
Key Signal
More than half of all active listings (54.6% metro-wide) have already cut price, and this month the pressure concentrates in the mid-market: 85048 Phoenix leads at 70% reduced. Median cuts cluster around $20K to $34K, real money coming off asking before these homes ever trade.
Section 05: What Zillow Can't Show You
Pre-Market Inventory
Coming-soon listings are tomorrow's inventory, visible to agents before they reach public portals. This is the competition buyers can't yet see.
| Zip | Area | Coming Soon | Active | Incoming % | Med. Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85142 | Queen Creek | 13 | 400 | 3.2% | $579,900 |
| 85383 | Peoria | 13 | 428 | 3.0% | $1,176,888 |
| 85212 | Mesa | 12 | 232 | 5.2% | $567,500 |
| 85326 | Buckeye | 11 | 480 | 2.3% | $399,000 |
| 85396 | Buckeye | 10 | 428 | 2.3% | $672,500 |
| 85018 | Phoenix | 10 | 136 | 7.4% | $2,147,500 |
| 85253 | Paradise Valley | 10 | 112 | 8.9% | $5,942,500 |
Key Signal
417 homes are staged off-market across Maricopa, and the luxury core stands out: Paradise Valley shows 10 coming-soon listings at a $5.9M median and Arcadia another 10 at $2.1M, the two highest incoming ratios on the board. The best luxury inventory this fall is already visible to connected agents, weeks before Zillow.