Phoenix Metro & Scottsdale
Market Intelligence
Report
A data-driven read on the Phoenix metro and Scottsdale single-family market for June 2026. Closed-sale financing, the new-construction permit pipeline, absorption by zip, and where sellers are cutting first.
Buyers: You have leverage where it is quiet, not where it is hot. North Scottsdale and Paradise Valley are 71% to 65% cash, so financed offers compete hardest there. Hunt the loosest-supply zips and the listings that have already reduced once: the seller has shown they will move.
Cash Buyer Intelligence
Of 4,827 single-family homes that closed across Maricopa County in the trailing period, 21.1% were all-cash. That share is wildly uneven by zip. The luxury north and Paradise Valley run two to three times the metro rate, which changes how a financed offer competes there.
Building Permit Pipeline
Single-family permits across the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metro tell you what next year's resale competition looks like. The trend is down: the trailing twelve months averaged 1,912 permits a month against 2,361 the prior year, a -19% pullback in new-build supply.
Absorption Rate
Months of supply is the cleanest read on who holds leverage. Under three months favors sellers; five-plus favors buyers. Across 109 actively-trading zips, the metro still leans seller, but the soft pockets are concentrated in the far-flung and the ultra-luxury.
| Zip | Area | Active | Sold | MoS | DOM | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85024 | Phoenix · Desert View | 59 | 51 | 1.2 | 38 | SELLER |
| 85224 | Chandler · Central | 52 | 44 | 1.2 | 36 | SELLER |
| 85208 | Mesa · E. | 49 | 38 | 1.3 | 62 | SELLER |
| 85204 | Mesa · Central | 54 | 39 | 1.4 | 50 | SELLER |
| 85033 | Phoenix · Maryvale | 47 | 32 | 1.5 | 51 | SELLER |
| 85361 | Wittmann | 86 | 18 | 4.8 | 88 | BALANCED |
| 85253 | Paradise Valley | 189 | 37 | 5.1 | 97 | BUYER |
| 85390 | Wickenburg | 80 | 15 | 5.3 | 116 | BUYER |
| 85354 | Tonopah | 86 | 15 | 5.7 | 67 | BUYER |
| 85262 | Scottsdale · Far N. | 310 | 44 | 7.0 | 106 | BUYER |
Price Reduction Velocity
Reduction rate is the earliest tell of seller pressure. It counts how many active listings have already dropped below their original ask. In the hottest-pressure zips, two of every three sellers have blinked, even with the median cut still a modest 3% to 7% off list.
| Zip | Area | Active | Reduced | Rate | Med. Cut % | Med. Cut $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85006 | Phoenix · Coronado | 50 | 38 | 76% | 5.6% | $29,505 |
| 85288 | Tempe · S. | 31 | 23 | 74% | 5.2% | $30,000 |
| 85007 | Phoenix · Central | 43 | 30 | 70% | 4.2% | $27,500 |
| 85304 | Glendale · N. | 55 | 38 | 69% | 3.3% | $14,550 |
| 85016 | Phoenix · Biltmore | 81 | 54 | 67% | 6.9% | $66,950 |
| 85226 | Chandler · W. | 49 | 32 | 65% | 3.3% | $20,000 |
| 85083 | Phoenix · N. | 69 | 45 | 65% | 3.3% | $24,000 |
| 85204 | Mesa · Central | 54 | 35 | 65% | 2.6% | $10,500 |
Pre-Market Inventory
Coming-soon listings are tomorrow's competition, and they never show on a buyer's Zillow search until they are already live. Metro-wide, 432 single-family homes are staged to hit the market. Here is where that shadow supply is concentrated, and at what price.
| Zip | Area | Coming Soon | Active | Incoming % | Med. Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85142 | Queen Creek | 11 | 422 | 2.5% | $996,200 |
| 85212 | Mesa · SE | 10 | 225 | 4.3% | $527,000 |
| 85383 | Peoria · N. | 10 | 474 | 2.1% | $1,037,500 |
| 85254 | Scottsdale · Magic 254 | 10 | 194 | 4.9% | $1,247,500 |
| 85234 | Gilbert · Central | 10 | 97 | 9.3% | $629,500 |
| 85018 | Phoenix · Arcadia | 9 | 169 | 5.1% | $2,200,000 |
| 85086 | Phoenix · N./Anthem | 8 | 225 | 3.4% | $797,500 |