Phoenix Housing Market Year Over Year Comparison January 2026

A year-over-year comparison of ARMLS data shows that the Greater Phoenix housing market has changed only modestly since this time last year. Looking at all property types and areas, supply is clearly higher. Active listings are up nearly 10 percent compared with January 2025, and the average price per square foot for homes currently on the market is also higher. The Cromford Supply Index has risen meaningfully, signaling more competition among sellers than a year ago.

Demand has also improved, though at a slower and more uneven pace. Pending listings are up about 3 percent, while homes under contract but not yet closed have increased by more than 9 percent. Closed transactions year to date are nearly 5 percent higher, showing buyers are still active. However, the average price per square foot for pending homes is lower than last year, suggesting buyers are pushing harder on price and being more selective about what they are willing to pay.

Pricing signals remain mixed. While the average closed price per square foot is slightly higher than last year, the median sales price has declined by about 1.4 percent. This points to a market where higher-priced homes are supporting averages, but the typical buyer is paying a little less than they did a year ago. Market balance metrics reinforce this picture. The contract ratio has slipped, days of inventory have risen, and the Cromford Market Index remains below 100, consistent with a buyer-leaning market.

What stands out most is the role of mortgage rates. The typical 30-year fixed rate is now near 6.19 percent, down sharply from just over 7 percent a year ago. Despite this significant improvement in borrowing costs, overall market conditions have shifted only slightly. This highlights an important reality. Interest rates matter, but they are only one piece of the puzzle. Supply levels, affordability, buyer confidence, and broader economic conditions continue to play a major role in shaping the housing market.

Have a great week, everyone!