Market Update March 16th, 2026

Three weeks ago we flagged the first signs of a momentum shift. Two weeks ago the data confirmed it. This week, the trend is accelerating! The number of cities moving in a direction favorable to buyers has dropped from 15 to just 10, while eight cities are now moving in favor of sellers. Chandler, Paradise Valley, Tempe, Avondale, Goodyear, Surprise, Queen Creek, and Maricopa all shifted toward sellers this past week, with Paradise Valley making the most significant move. The average Cromford Market Index is down just 1.4%, a sharp deceleration from the 3.5% decline we saw last week. At this pace, the trend could reverse entirely within the next two weeks!

Listings under contract hit 9,790 this week, up 12.9% compared to the same week last year and marking the third consecutive week of outperformance against prior years. Pending listings jumped to 5,550, up 9.3% year over year. The demand side of the market is no longer just showing signs of life. It is picking up real steam.

On the pricing front, the average sale price sits at $655,852, up 2.4% year over year, while the median landed at $454,790, down 2.0% from last year. That divergence tells you the luxury segment continues to pull the average up while the core middle market remains flat to slightly softer. Monthly dollar volume hit $4.24 billion, up 4.6% year over year, driven primarily by transaction count rather than price appreciation. Appreciation itself has cooled to 1.5% on a monthly basis, down significantly from 7.0% at this time last year.

One of the biggest stories this week is happening in Washington! The "21st Road to Housing Act" is progressing through Congress with bipartisan support and looks likely to become law. If signed, it would be the most significant housing legislation since the 1980s. The key provision defines an "institutional investor" as any entity owning 350 or more single-family homes. Those large investors would be barred from purchasing additional single-family homes (with exceptions for build-to-rent, rent-to-own, and heavy restoration projects) and would be required to sell any purchased homes to a private individual within seven years. For the average buyer and seller in the Phoenix metro, the practical impact is limited. Institutional investors have already been net sellers over the past two years. The bigger effect will be on the build-to-rent pipeline, which is likely to slow, potentially pushing rents higher over time. The resale market that most of us operate in remains largely unaffected.

Here is what to watch: Gilbert and Cave Creek both moved 7% or more in favor of buyers this week, while five of the ten seller's markets now sit below a CMI of 120, meaning their seller advantage is relatively weak. If the deceleration trend holds for two more weeks, we could see the Cromford Market Index begin trending upward for the first time since late last year. That would be a significant inflection point. Stay tuned!

"The secret of change is to focus all of your energy not on fighting the old, but on building the new." - Socrates

Have a great week, everyone!