December’s headline job growth figure, released on Friday, suggests a robust labor market, though it is subject to revision in subsequent reports. The initial data showed strength in multiple areas, including increases in both full-time and part-time employment after declines in November. However, the report revealed some concerning trends, like the average duration of unemployment climbing to 23.7 weeks—the highest since April 2022! Additionally, Friday’s release of ADP’s Employment Report showed weaker-than-expected private sector job growth, with December adding only 122,000 jobs, marking the lowest since August. November’s job growth figure remained unrevised, keeping the spotlight on a cooling trend in the labor market. The bulk of December’s hiring came from the services sector and large businesses, as reported on Friday, with small businesses finally showing slight gains after previous losses. That’s an improvement! Wage growth moderated for both job-changers and job-stayers, with stayers experiencing the slowest wage growth since July 2021. Meanwhile, Friday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report highlighted a rise in job openings to 8.098 million, surpassing forecasts. However, a drop in both the hiring rate and the quit rate reflected underlying labor market weakness. Overcounting of remote job postings and a significant drop in the job openings to unemployment ratio further emphasized a labor market that’s cooling off. Friday’s unemployment claims data painted a mixed picture! Initial Jobless Claims fell during the holiday period while Continuing Claims rose to 1.867 million. This signals a persistent slowdown in hiring, with Continuing Claims staying above 1.8 million for over 30 weeks. Seasonal factors, like holiday travel, may have skewed the numbers, but the broader trend points to longer periods of unemployment as job opportunities become harder to find. On a brighter note, CoreLogic’s Home Price Index, also released Friday, showed that home prices were flat in November, with a forecasted annual appreciation of 3.8%—a big jump from previous expectations! This highlights real estate’s ongoing strength as a wealth-building tool. Looking ahead, several major economic indicators are on deck this week, including inflation data and housing reports. These updates will be crucial as they influence the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates. Following Friday’s strong job data, Mortgage Bonds faced downward pressure, testing key support levels and signaling potential shifts in financial markets. As labor market trends and housing data evolve, it’s clear that keeping an eye on these numbers will be key to understanding what’s next for the economy!"I believe there's an inner power that makes winners or losers." And the winners are the ones who really listen to the truth of their hearts."— Sylvester Stallone Have a great week everyone!

This week marks a notable improvement in the real estate market for sellers compared to the previous month. Data from the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) reveals that 15 major cities have experienced an increase in their index over the past month, while only 2 have shown a decline. This positive shift is accompanied by significant market activity, including an unprecedented number of listings expiring at the end of the year—nearly 900 in total. These expirations reduced the number of active listings by approximately 550 and the number of temporary off-market listings by about 250, impacting overall inventory levels. The average change in the CMI over the past month is a robust +8.8%, building on last week’s +6.2% gain. However, the dramatic rise in expired listings has introduced some complexity to the market. The number of expirations this year is more than double what it was 12 months ago, contributing to a drop in the listing success rate, which has fallen below 65%. For comparison, the success rate stood at over 68% a year ago. As we exit the holiday season, the favorable seasonal trends that previously reduced supply have ended, and we expect the number of active listings to grow again. How long this trend lasts will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the market in 2025. Several cities are showing remarkable progress in their CMI scores. Tempe, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Chandler, Scottsdale, Peoria, and Gilbert have all posted double-digit percentage improvements, with Goodyear and Glendale close behind. However, not all cities are benefiting from these positive trends. Maricopa and Surprise have failed to show improvement and are still grappling with an imbalance between supply and demand. This underscores the varied dynamics across the market, with some areas thriving while others continue to face challenges. Currently, 9 cities are classified as seller’s markets, 3 as balanced markets, and 5 as buyer’s markets. The cities in buyer’s markets, such as Maricopa and Buckeye, are burdened by a surplus of inventory relative to demand. In contrast, the top-performing cities are characterized by limited supply and strong demand, particularly in more expensive areas. These pricier segments of the market are supported by active participation from wealthier buyers, who are helping to stabilize these areas despite broader fluctuations in inventory and listing success rates."A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new."– Albert Einstein Have a great week everyone!

This week marks a notable improvement in the market for sellers compared to last month. Fourteen large cities have reported an increase in their Cromford® Market Index (CMI) over the past month, while only three have experienced a decline. This positive trend highlights a significant shift, with sellers gaining an edge in many areas.The average change in the CMI over the past month stands at +6.2%, a considerable increase from the +2.9% recorded last week. While this improvement is encouraging, it’s essential to view it in context. Much of the positive momentum is driven by seasonal supply reductions typical of December. Still, this year's 6.2% average improvement surpasses the 2.0% increase observed at the same time last year, offering a reason for optimism.Several cities have shown remarkable progress, with Tempe, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, and Gilbert leading the way with double-digit percentage increases. Chandler and Scottsdale are not far behind, demonstrating strong growth as well. In contrast, Cave Creek, Maricopa, and Surprise remain the only cities failing to show improvement, maintaining a consistent trend.Currently, the market composition includes nine cities categorized as seller's markets, three as balanced markets, and five as buyer's markets. This distribution reflects the shifting dynamics and continued opportunities for sellers to benefit in an increasingly favorable market environment."What you get by achieving your goals is not as important as what you become by achieving your goals."-Zig Ziglar Have a great week everyone!

The Federal Reserve implemented its third interest rate cut of 2024 on Wednesday, reducing its benchmark rate by 0.25 points. However, this adjustment did not translate into a decrease in mortgage rates. Instead, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiked to 6.72% for the week ending December 19, according to Freddie Mac data. This represents an increase from 6.60% the week prior. Mortgage News Daily reported an even sharper rise, with intraday rates reaching 7.13% on the day of the Fed meeting and climbing further to 7.14% on Thursday. The apparent disconnect between the Fed's rate cuts and rising mortgage rates can be attributed to the bond market, which heavily influences borrowing costs. Mortgage rates closely track Treasury yields rather than the federal funds rate. This dynamic was evident in November when mortgage rates increased in response to market reactions following Donald Trump’s election win. Experts noted that the Federal Reserve’s indication of fewer rate cuts in 2025 might have contributed to the bond market volatility, further driving up borrowing costs. Market anticipation plays a significant role in mortgage rate fluctuations, as noted by Jacob Channel, a senior economist at LendingTree. For instance, mortgage rates declined during the summer and early fall in anticipation of the Fed’s initial rate cut in September. However, actual Fed meetings often result in limited immediate changes to mortgage rates. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve this week suggested that its benchmark lending rate could drop to 3.9% by the end of 2025. This represents a target range of 3.75% to 4%, which is still above the current range of 4.25% to 4.50% following the latest rate cut. Experts also point to policy uncertainties as a source of market unease. Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, highlighted that inflationary policies, such as those related to tariffs, immigration, and tax cuts, have exacerbated bond market volatility. These factors, combined with the Fed’s cautious outlook for future rate cuts, have created a complex landscape where borrowing costs continue to rise despite the central bank’s actions to ease financial conditions.It will be interesting to see as we enter buying season in January when the snowbirds kick off the buying season here in Phoenix! With elections in the past, the holidays, and the new year started there are no more objective dismissals buyers can give as we enter January!"Setting goals is the first step in turning the invisible into the visible."-Tony Robbins Have a great week everyone! Happy Holidays!

At a median sales price of $371,090, Pinal County’s housing market has experienced a decline of just over 8% from its peak of $405,000, which was reached during the second quarter of 2022. The majority of this drop occurred between June 2022 and February 2023. Since the first quarter of 2023, prices have seen slight upward movement, although there was a minor dip around 12 months ago. On the surface, this suggests that the housing market has stabilized somewhat after the initial downturn. However, this straightforward analysis overlooks two critical factors: inflation and seller concessions. Due to the significant decrease in purchasing power of the U.S. dollar caused by inflation between the second quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2024, the current median sales price of $371,090 is equivalent to $343,805 in 2022 dollars. Additionally, seller concessions have risen sharply during this time, both in frequency and value. The share of transactions involving seller concessions has more than doubled, and the median concession amount has increased from $4,500 to $10,000. Accounting for inflation and concessions, the effective value of homes in Pinal County is approximately 17% lower than it was at the market's peak. The Cromford Market Index (CMI) further highlights the market's shift toward buyers in Pinal County. For all areas and property types tracked in the ARMLS database, the CMI sits just below 90. However, many of Pinal County’s largest markets, including Maricopa, unincorporated San Tan Valley, Florence, Coolidge, Casa Grande, and Arizona City, have experienced CMI readings below 90 for an extended period, indicating a prolonged buyer’s market. Gold Canyon has recently dipped below this threshold within the last two weeks, while Apache Junction stands as the lone exception, maintaining a CMI well above 100. Casa Grande serves as a prime example of this trend. The most recent monthly median sales price for single-family homes in Casa Grande is $316,000, marking the lowest figure since January 2023 and reflecting a 20% drop from the June 2022 peak of $395,000. With a CMI of just 52.8, a reading below 90 for the past 14 months, and nearly five months of available supply, it is unsurprising that pricing weakness has persisted. In contrast, Maricopa County offers a more favorable environment for sellers, particularly in its central and northeastern regions, where market conditions remain relatively strong. However, areas like Buckeye, Surprise, and Goodyear have also shown weakness, albeit to a lesser degree than Pinal County overall.“The successful man will profit from his mistakes and try again in a different way.”—Dale Carnegie Have a great week everyone!

The November affidavits of value for Maricopa County have been tallied, providing an insightful overview of the real estate market's performance. The month saw 5,393 closed transactions, marking a 10.4% increase compared to November 2023's 4,887 but a 12.3% decline from October 2024. Among these transactions, 1,295 were closed new homes, reflecting a 6.1% growth year-over-year but a 13.8% decrease from October. Meanwhile, re-sale transactions comprised 4,098 closings, up 11.8% from November 2023 yet down 11.8% from the prior month. Despite one fewer working day in November 2024 compared to the same month last year, the market demonstrated resilience, with both new and re-sale transactions improving year-over-year. Median sales prices showcased nuanced trends across the market. The overall median sales price in November 2024 was $474,790, up 2.1% from November 2023 but showing a marginal decline of 0.04% from October. The median price for new homes stood at $504,490, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-over-year and a 4.0% drop from October. In contrast, re-sale homes experienced price growth, with a median price of $458,500, reflecting a 2.6% increase from November 2023 and a modest 0.8% rise from October. This divergence underscores the evolving dynamics of pricing in new versus re-sale properties. Market share analysis revealed a continued decline in the prominence of new homes. New homes accounted for 24.4% of the market in November 2024, down from 26.7% a year earlier and slightly lower than October's 24.4%. This decline suggests a shift in buyer preferences or other external factors affecting the new home segment. Despite the reduction in market share, both new and re-sale home transaction rates were notably stronger compared to the previous year, further highlighting the overall market's recovery trajectory. These statistics encompass single-family homes and townhouse/condo properties, offering a comprehensive view of Maricopa County's housing landscape. While overall median prices were slightly down from the previous month, they remained higher than a year ago. Re-sale pricing continues to outpace new home pricing, reflecting buyer activity and pricing strategies. Together, these figures paint a picture of a dynamic and evolving real estate market navigating both seasonal trends and broader economic conditions.Rates have been dipping since last week, if this continues with a combination of the kick-off of buying season come January, it could be a bump in demand for the new year.“Some people want it to happen, some wish it would happen, others make it happen.”—Michael Jordan Have a great week everyone!

The contract ratio for all areas and property types has fallen below 30, indicating a notable cooling in the real estate market. Currently, at 29.6, this is the lowest contract ratio recorded since April 2009, a period marked by significant market challenges. This sharp decline highlights a shift in buyer behavior and demand, suggesting that economic conditions or buyer confidence are impacting the pace of property transactions. With a contract ratio this low, the market is officially classified as cold. A cold market typically reflects sluggish buyer activity and increased competition among sellers. This shift often results in properties staying on the market longer and sellers needing to adjust their strategies to attract interest. Buyers, on the other hand, may find themselves in a stronger negotiating position, with more options available and less urgency to make decisions. As the pool of active buyers shrinks, downward pressure on home prices is beginning to build. Sellers are responding by making efforts to stand out, including pricing adjustments or offering incentives. These tactics aim to appeal to a limited number of motivated buyers who remain in the market. This pressure could lead to further softening in home prices, especially in areas or property types where supply exceeds demand. Overall, the declining contract ratio and emerging price pressures suggest a pivotal moment for the housing market. Sellers must adapt to the changing dynamics, while buyers have an opportunity to navigate a less competitive environment. As conditions evolve, both parties will need to remain informed and strategic to achieve their real estate goals in this challenging market landscape."In three words I can sum up everything I've learned about life: It goes on."— Robert Frost Have a great week everyone!

  Over the past month, six large cities have shown an increase in their Cromford® Market Index (CMI), continuing the trend observed last week. The average change in CMI across all cities is a decline of 4.2%, which is a slight improvement compared to the 4.8% decline seen the previous week. While the market continues to deteriorate for sellers, the pace of decline has slowed, indicating a potential stabilization in some areas. Fountain Hills experienced the most significant decline, losing 28% of its CMI over the past month. This dramatic drop caused Fountain Hills to relinquish its position as the top performer, with Chandler taking the lead. Alongside Chandler, Cave Creek has emerged as one of the strongest performers in the market. These shifts highlight the variability in market dynamics among different cities. In other notable changes, Peoria, which had previously been improving, has reversed course and is now experiencing a decline. Meanwhile, Paradise Valley has shown resilience, bouncing back after recent deterioration. Despite these positive changes for some cities, several others, including Buckeye, Surprise, Maricopa, Scottsdale, and Mesa, have seen substantial declines in their CMI, each deteriorating by 7% or more over the past month. Overall, the market landscape reveals a mixed picture. Seven cities remain seller's markets, though five of them are categorized as very weak seller's markets with CMI values below 117. Additionally, five cities are now in a balanced market, while another five have shifted into buyer's market territory. This distribution underscores the ongoing shifts in market dynamics, with conditions varying significantly across the region.As rates hover around 7% we should see seller leverage in certain areas until the new year after the holidays are over with as many buyers seasonally stopping their plans of a purchase right now. If we have any significant drop in rates like we did in October well then that might change some things! "Before anything else, preparation is the key to success"— Alexander Graham Bell Have a great week everyone!

Over the past month, six large cities have shown an increase in their Cromford® Market Index (CMI), marking an improvement from last week when only five cities were trending upward. Avondale's shift in direction accounts for the rise of additional cities. Meanwhile, the average change in CMI over the past month is -4.8%, slightly better than last week’s -5.0%. While the market continues to deteriorate for sellers, the pace of decline has marginally slowed. At the top of the market, Fountain Hills has been the worst performer, experiencing a sharp 24% drop in its CMI over the last month. Buckeye, Paradise Valley, and Surprise also saw significant declines, with deterioration exceeding 10%. These numbers reflect a challenging environment for sellers in these areas, with reduced demand or increased competition weighing heavily on their ability to negotiate favorable deals. Conversely, Chandler, Tempe, and Cave Creek have shown promising growth, each recording CMI gains of 6% or more. Other cities showing upward momentum include Avondale, Peoria, and Phoenix, which have moved into positive territory. These areas provide sellers with improved conditions, signaling greater demand and fewer obstacles in achieving favorable sales outcomes. Overall, the market landscape remains diverse, with seven cities categorized as seller’s markets, five as balanced, and five as buyer’s markets. Among the latter group, all five cities at the bottom of the table have seen declines of 6% or more, underscoring the significant challenges sellers face in these areas. This dynamic highlights the varying degrees of negotiating power across the region, where market conditions are increasingly influenced by location-specific factors.With mortgage rates not expected to change drastically heading into 2025, we will more than likely see a revolving change in demand from city to city month over month as each group of buyers swarm to find the best pricing possible with the best quality home as well. ‘There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it.’– Oscar Wilde Have a great week everyone!

In 2024, the active listing trend has taken an unusual and unexpected turn, visible in a recent spike in available listings. Represented in light blue, the 2024 trend line reveals a sharp jump over the last two days, with listings approaching the 22,000 mark. This sudden increase has pushed 2024's listings above the levels seen in 2016 and 2015, making it necessary to look back a decade, to 2014, to find a November with more supply in the early to mid part of the month. Such a spike in November suggests potential shifts in the housing market, leaving many wondering about the cause. At the start of 2024, January's listings were actually lower than January 2023’s count. Yet, a distinct shift occurred as the spring months progressed. Unlike most years, when active listings tend to decline during the spring, 2024 maintained a steady or increasing number of listings through that period. Typically, this trend might be expected to taper off as we approach the holidays, with listings usually decreasing between mid-November and the end of December. However, the recent jump has defied this pattern, sparking concern and speculation about whether it signals a larger trend or market anomaly. This unexpected surge raises questions about the factors contributing to an unusually high number of listings so late in the year. There are various possible explanations, including changes in market conditions, seasonal adjustments, or shifts in buyer or seller behavior, all of which could be influencing this sudden increase. Given the typical trend of decreasing listings as the year winds down, many are now pondering whether this spike is the beginning of a new seasonal pattern or perhaps a reaction to broader economic conditions affecting seller urgency or inventory management. Ultimately, it remains unclear whether this recent jump in listings will mark a lasting change or will fade as a minor blip in the housing market. Market watchers are left to wonder: is this a sign of a new trend in listing behaviors, or simply an insignificant short-term deviation? Time will tell if this is just a brief, unusual increase, or the onset of a new trend that could reshape the expectations for seasonal listing patterns.“Duty, honor, country: Those three hallowed words reverently dictate what you ought to be, what you can be, what you will be.”— General Douglas MacArthur Have a great week everyone!

Over the past eight months, the real estate market has increasingly turned against sellers, who might instinctively attribute this shift to weakened buyer demand and persistently high interest rates. However, the primary cause of this change appears to be an increasing supply of available properties. As the months have passed, the inventory of homes for sale has steadily grown, putting more options in front of buyers and diminishing the likelihood that any particular listing will stand out. This intensifying competition among sellers is leading to frequent and often substantial cuts in list prices as they attempt to draw buyer interest. Compounding this trend is the presence of newly built homes, which represent a significant share of the market but only minimally contribute to the count of active listings. The rise in active listings has been significant, with properties without a contract climbing from 15,574 in February to 21,368 currently—a 37% increase. This influx of listings offers buyers an abundance of choices, making it harder for sellers to command attention in a crowded marketplace. As a result, sellers must actively compete with one another, often lowering prices to remain competitive. Additionally, these sellers face competition from new builds, which are drawing an unusually high share of contracts signed in 2024. The surge in available new construction only adds pressure on sellers of existing homes, further intensifying the challenge of attracting buyers. One way to gauge the cooling market conditions is through the contract ratio, which reflects the market's activity level. In February, the contract ratio for all areas and property types was 47.7, signaling a moderately active market; by contrast, this figure has now dropped to 32.46, verging on a cold market. The last time we saw this level in November was a few years ago when iBuyers were liquidating their excess inventory at discounted prices, with over 20,000 active listings at that time. Unlike then, today's situation isn't driven by an unusual surge in inventory but rather a simple imbalance between too many sellers and too few buyers. This disparity is causing the number of unsold homes to build up week by week, placing further pressure on prices. Currently, the Cromford® Market Index is hovering just above the buyer's market threshold, indicating that unless market conditions shift, a period of stronger downward pressure on prices may be on the horizon. As homes linger longer on the market, more sellers may lose patience and resort to lowering their prices in response. However, a possible seasonal reduction in active listings could mitigate this trend somewhat, as sellers typically remove homes from the market during the holiday season. Although an oversupply at the end of the year—like in 2005—can sometimes signal trouble ahead, that scenario appears less likely in 2024. Still, a close watch on both active listings and the contract ratio over the next two months will provide key insights into the market's direction."The best way to predict your future is to create it."– Abraham Lincoln Have a great week everyone!

The mortgage rate news has been unfavorable over the past week, with the typical 30-year fixed rate climbing to approximately 6.91% today from 6.68% last week. This increase brings rates back up to the levels observed in late July, marking a significant rise that could impact housing affordability and buyer activity in the coming weeks. In the context of the Cromford Market Index (CMI), only four large cities are showing an increase over the past month. Notably, this group has seen a slight change since last week: Maricopa has dropped out and been replaced by Phoenix. The inclusion of Phoenix among the cities with rising CMIs is encouraging, as it accounts for roughly 25% of all real estate transactions in the area. Meanwhile, thirteen cities are experiencing a decrease in their CMI, suggesting a potential cooling in those local markets. The average change in the CMI over the past month is -4.5%, a slight decline from last week's -4.0%. Paradise Valley stands out as the worst performer, suffering a significant 30% drop over the most recent month. This sharp decline indicates substantial market adjustments and could be a point of concern for investors and homeowners in that area. Conversely, Tempe has been joined by Cave Creek in posting respectable percentage gains of 7% or more in their CMIs. The other cities with positive movements, represented by green dots, are Peoria and Phoenix. Excluding Paradise Valley, the largest declines continue to be concentrated in the Southwest region, particularly in Avondale, Goodyear, and Buckeye. These trends highlight the varied performance across different cities and underscore the complex dynamics of the current real estate market.Rates jumped back up to 7% as of today, however, the lower rates the past month did not bring in as much demand as initially expected. Either the market will continue to stay like this for the foreseeable future, or some people holding back until after the election. “I hit big or I miss big. I like to live as big as I can.”—Babe Ruth Have a great week everyone!

The Listing Success Rate is one of the most revealing and reliable indicators of the housing market's health, yet it is seldom measured except by the Cromford Report. In stark contrast, the average days on the market is a comparatively dull and meaningless statistic, though it is measured and reported almost everywhere. We recommend disregarding the average days on the market; while it might hold interest for a specific listing, its statistical average reveals little useful information about the state of the market. Currently, our month-to-date Listing Success Rate is 71%, which is above the long-term average of 68%, though slightly below the 75% recorded at this time last year. This suggests that the market is close to normal and not improving significantly. However, this might not feel like a return to normalcy, especially considering that from 2011 to 2022, the market stayed above normal almost continuously. Consequently, a normal market now feels much worse than the elevated conditions experienced during that period. Moreover, we have had little experience of normalcy in the last 24 years, as the market has predominantly been better or worse than normal. For those who were active between 2006 and 2011, the current market is considerably better. During that five-year period, the Listing Success Rate stayed below 61% and often fell below 40%, meaning that far more listings failed than succeeded. Conversely, from 2020 to 2022, we witnessed an unusually strong market where the Listing Success Rate exceeded 90% for extended periods. Analyzing the data reveals that Listing Success Rates are generally higher than average for lower-priced properties and lower for higher-priced ones. Presently, the success rate for listings priced at $2 million and above is 50.6%, whereas it is around 79% for those priced between $250,000 and $400,000. Interestingly, properties priced extremely low, under $200,000, have a lower success rate of about 56%, often due to serious disadvantages causing them to be priced significantly below the median home price. It is important to exercise caution when interpreting Listing Success Rates in small sample sizes, such as a single ZIP code or small city, as these numbers can fluctuate wildly and offer little useful information. Over the past 90 days, we can rank the large cities as follows: Buckeye at 79.5%, Peoria at 77.9%, Chandler at 77.7%, Queen Creek at 77.1%, Gilbert and Avondale both at 75.9%, Glendale at 73.7%, Maricopa at 74.5%, Surprise at 72.3%, Mesa at 72.6%, Fountain Hills at 72.2%, Tempe at 71.9%, Goodyear at 71.2%, Phoenix at 71.1%, Scottsdale at 65.7%, Cave Creek at 60.8%, and Paradise Valley significantly lower at 39.3%. These figures underscore how success rates can vary across different locales, further emphasizing the need for careful analysis when considering market data. "Failure will never overtake me if my determination to succeed is strong enough."-Og Mandino Have a great week everyone!

The brief surge in demand observed during September is beginning to wane, with the number of listings under contract now somewhat lower than in late September. Meanwhile, active supply continues to grow in line with seasonal patterns. This gradual increase in inventory is slowly shifting negotiation power into the hands of buyers. If this trend persists without any significant changes, we are likely headed toward a buyer's market. The Cromford Market Index (CMI) has already dropped below 94, a level that typically indicates a market favoring buyers. This decline suggests that current conditions are beginning to tilt away from sellers, providing buyers with more leverage. Under normal circumstances, we anticipate supply to rise throughout October and well into November. However, after Thanksgiving, the supply usually starts to fade, closing the year at noticeably lower levels. This seasonal reduction in supply could potentially impact market dynamics as we move into the new year. Given these trends, buyers may find increasing opportunities for negotiation in the coming weeks, while sellers might need to adjust their expectations accordingly. Monitoring these market developments will be crucial for all stakeholders as we approach the year's end.Rates have been stabilizing in the mid 6's so we will see if this remains while we enter into the election cycle and see how the markets react afterwards into the holidays. “Real integrity is doing the right thing, knowing that nobody’s going to know whether you did it or not.”― Oprah Winfrey Have a great week everyone!

In September 2024, Maricopa County's real estate market witnessed a noticeable decline in closed transactions for single-family homes and townhouses/condos, as revealed by the recently analyzed affidavits of value. The total number of closed transactions stood at 5,584, marking a decrease of 5.3% from the 5,896 transactions recorded in September 2023 and a 6.4% drop from August 2024. This decline is particularly significant considering there were 21 working days in September 2024 compared to 20 in September 2023; under consistent daily closing rates, an increase of 5.0% would have been anticipated. New home sales were notably impacted, with 1,441 closed transactions—a sharp decline of 11.3% from the 1,624 closings in September 2023 and a slight 0.8% decrease from August 2024. Resale transactions also fell, albeit less dramatically, with 4,143 closings representing a 3.0% drop from 4,272 in September 2023 and an 8.2% decrease from the previous month. Despite these declines, the new home market share remained robust at 25.8% in September 2024, though this is a reduction from 27.5% a year earlier. Amid declining transaction volumes, median sales prices demonstrated resilience. The overall median sales price in September 2024 was $471,995, reflecting a 4.9% increase from September 2023 and a modest 0.4% rise from August 2024. The median sales price for resale homes held steady at $450,000, up 2.3% from the previous year but unchanged from the prior month. New homes experienced a more substantial increase in median sales price, reaching $518,792—an 8.3% rise from September 2023 and a 1.0% uptick from August 2024. However, it's noteworthy that the combined peak median sales price remains at $490,000, achieved in May 2022, indicating current prices are still 3.7% below that peak. The data paints a picture of low transaction volumes coupled with stable pricing, suggesting a market with a slight excess of supply over demand. Looking ahead, there's an expectation for a modest improvement in transaction volumes and for prices to remain stable, albeit with a slight downward tendency due to current market conditions. While the market faces challenges in sales volume, the stability in pricing offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for Maricopa County's real estate sector.Rates jumped back up to about 6.5% Friday afternoon so we will have to keep an eye if they keep rising. I think they will continue to hover around this point up until the election or if whispers start if the Fed is looking to cut rates again any time soon and by how much.“What you lack in talent can be made up with desire, hustle, and giving 110% all the time.”– Don Zimmer Have a great week everyone!

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index numbers were published this Tuesday, offering valuable insights into the housing market across 20 major U.S. cities. This index is a key indicator for economists, investors, and policymakers, as it reflects trends in home prices that can influence economic decisions and strategies. The data serves as a critical barometer for understanding regional and national shifts in the real estate market, offering a snapshot of economic health and consumer confidence. The new report covers home sales during the period from May to July 2024, which means the typical home sale closed in mid-June—over three months ago. It's important to note that Case-Shiller data is inherently lagging; even on the day of its release, it represents market conditions from the recent past rather than current dynamics. This time lag should be considered when interpreting the data, as more recent trends or shifts influenced by factors such as interest rate changes or economic events occurring after mid-June may not be fully captured. Comparing the latest figures to the previous month's series reveals some notable changes. Last month, all 20 cities showed rising prices, but this month, eight of them experienced declines. Cities like Cleveland (+1.10%), Las Vegas (+0.88%), and New York (+0.52%) led in price increases, while San Francisco (-1.09%), San Diego (-0.58%), and Denver (-0.40%) saw the most significant decreases. Phoenix notably rose from 15th to 11th place, aligning closely with the national average monthly increase of +0.10%. The Northern cities, Las Vegas, and the Southeast remain the strongest regions in terms of price growth. Examining year-over-year changes, all 20 cities reported positive price movements compared to one year ago, with the national average standing at +5.0%. New York (+8.8%) and Las Vegas (+8.2%) topped the list, indicating robust growth. Phoenix maintained its 15th-place position with a +2.9% change, placing it in the bottom half and well below the national average—a trend consistent over the past five months. Denver (+1.3%) and Portland (+0.8%) remained at the bottom. Las Vegas's strong performance in both monthly and yearly comparisons underscores its resilience in the current housing market. Compared with the previous month's numbers, we see the following changes: Cleveland +1.10% Las Vegas +0.88% New York +0.52% Chicago +0.45% Detroit +0.39% Miami +0.31% Charlotte +0.23% Atlanta +0.15% Minneapolis +0.14% Washington +0.11% Phoenix +0.09% Boston +0.03% Portland -0.01% Seattle -0.05% Tampa -0.10% Dallas -0.11% Los Angeles -0.28% Denver -0.40% San Diego -0.58% San Francisco -1.09% Comparing year over year, we see the following changes: New York +8.8% Las Vegas +8.2% Los Angeles +7.2% San Diego +7.2% Cleveland +7.0% Chicago +6.7% Detroit +6.6% Boston +6.5% Miami +6.5% Seattle +6.0% Charlotte +5.8% Washington +5.5% Atlanta +4.5% San Francisco +3.4% Phoenix +2.9% Tampa +2.2% Minneapolis +2.0% Dallas +1.9% Denver +1.3% Portland +0.8% "Quality is not an act; it is a habit." — Aristotle Have a great week everyone!

Over the past two weeks, the negative trend in the housing market has not only continued but also gained momentum. Buyers are steadily acquiring more negotiation power, although this shift remains mild and is primarily concentrated within the lower and middle price ranges. This development indicates a subtle but noteworthy change in market dynamics, favoring buyers in these specific segments. In examining the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) over the past month, we observe that seven cities have experienced an increase. Conversely, ten cities, including the two largest—Phoenix and Mesa—have seen a decrease in their CMI. The average change in the CMI across all cities is -1.3%, a decline from last week's -0.7%. Notably, this average decline would be more pronounced if not for the significant uptick in Paradise Valley, which has risen sharply during the same period. Fountain Hills stands out with a respectable 10% gain in its CMI, signaling a strengthening market in that area. Other cities showing modest increases include Buckeye, Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Surprise, and Glendale, though their gains are relatively unimpressive. On the other hand, the most substantial declines are observed in Avondale, Chandler, Phoenix, Peoria, and Maricopa, indicating a weakening market presence in these locations. Analyzing the broader market landscape, nine out of seventeen cities remain seller's markets with CMI scores over 110, although three of these are just below 120. Three cities have achieved a balanced market status, while the remaining five have shifted into buyer's markets. Interestingly, two cities now boast CMI scores over 140, both predominantly featuring more expensive homes. This suggests that the luxury market continues to favor sellers more significantly than other market segments. Despite some minor signs of improving demand, the supply is increasing at a faster rate, gradually tipping the balance in favor of buyers across most areas.We should be able to see if the recent mortgage rates drop start pulling in demand overall. There should be about a 30-day delay in getting results from these changes as buyers start to make their moves and lock in rates starting now as they go out looking to purchase a new home in the coming weeks.  "If you fell down yesterday, stand up today." — H.G. Wells Have a great week everyone!

As anticipated, Paradise Valley continues to dominate the luxury real estate market, consistently topping performance charts and widening its lead over Scottsdale over the past three years. Paradise Valley and Scottsdale have experienced an impressive 8.5% year-over-year increase, the highest percentages observed in the market. This substantial growth underscores how robustly the luxury sector has performed compared to other market segments. Not far behind the leaders are Fountain Hills and Rio Verde, which have also shown significant gains. However, Carefree is lagging slightly with only a 2.8% increase. It's important to note that Carefree represents a smaller market, making its annual averages more susceptible to volatility. These fluctuations highlight the nuances within luxury markets of different sizes. A clear trend emerges when examining the performance of central locations versus more remote areas. Central regions like Phoenix have excelled, boasting an 8% increase—the third-best return among the top 40 markets and the highest outside the Northeast Valley. Additionally, areas not traditionally considered luxury markets, such as Youngtown and suburban locales like Gilbert, have also demonstrated strong growth. In contrast, the Southwest Valley exhibits weaker performance, with Avondale, Goodyear, Laveen, and Litchfield Park all posting increases below 3%, although Tolleson remains near the market average. The most underperforming markets tend to be in outer locations, including Coolidge, Arizona City, Tonopah, Eloy, Florence, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon, and Apache Junction. Furthermore, areas designated for residents aged 55 and over have faced challenges; both Sun City and Sun City West reported modest gains of 1.7%, while Sun Lakes fared moderately better with a 4.6% increase. These patterns suggest that proximity to central hubs plays a significant role in real estate performance, and demographic factors could also influence market dynamics.This will be a big week for the economy as Jerome Powell chair of the Federal Reserve speaks Wednesday! Make sure to stay in the know and know what is going on to make the best financial decisions possible! "Setting goals is the first step in turning the invisible into the visible."-Tony Robbins   Have a great week everyone!

The analysis of Maricopa County's real estate market for August reveals some significant trends and fluctuations compared to previous periods. In August, there were 5,936 closed transactions, a decrease of 9.0% from 6,556 in the same month of the previous year, and a 6.2% decline from July's figures. This drop in closed transactions included 1,453 new home sales, down 9.6% year-over-year but showing a 6.4% increase from July, and 4,510 re-sale transactions, decreasing by 8.9% from August 2023 and 9.5% from the preceding month. Despite 22 working days in August 2024 compared to 23 in August 2023, which partly explains the reduced activity, the extent of the decline suggests other influencing factors at play. The real estate pricing dynamics present a slightly different picture. The overall median sales price in August stood at $470,000, marking a 2.4% increase from August 2023 and a slight 0.5% increase from July. Breaking this down further, the median sales price for re-sale homes was $450,000, showing a modest year-over-year increase of 1.1% but remained unchanged from the previous month. In contrast, new homes exhibited a stronger price growth, with the median price reaching $513,633, up 2.7% from the previous year and a 1.5% increase from July. Interestingly, despite the general decline in transaction volumes, the new home market captured a slightly larger share in August 2024, accounting for 24.4% of all sales compared to 24.5% a year earlier. This indicates a shift in buyer preference or market availability favoring new constructions, albeit marginally. It's important to note that while the market has seen overall price increases roughly in line with inflation, it remains 4% below the peak pricing of $490,000 achieved in May 2022, pointing to a market that has not fully recovered to its highest valuation. In summary, Maricopa County's real estate market in August 2024 demonstrated a complex interplay between declining sales volumes and moderately rising prices. While transaction numbers were notably lower, suggesting a cooling market, prices have held relatively stable and even showed slight increases. This suggests that while fewer transactions are occurring, the demand and pricing power remain somewhat resilient, painting a picture of a market experiencing adjustment rather than a downturn. This stable yet sluggish trend might influence future market predictions and investor confidence in the regional real estate landscape. “Start where you are. Use what you have. Do what you can.”—Arthur Ashe   Have a great week everyone!

The real estate market exhibited a notable shift in August, with the supply of active listings without a contract increasing by 5.5% since the beginning of the month. This upturn is particularly significant when compared to the same period last year, showing a 57% increase as of September 1, 2023. Typically, such increases in supply are expected in September, making this August's data particularly intriguing. This pattern suggests a deviation from the usual seasonal trends observed in the housing market, hinting at underlying factors influencing market dynamics.Despite a recent decline in mortgage interest rates, which conventionally stimulates demand and suppresses supply, the expected market response has not materialized. Instead, the overall demand has slightly decreased, while supply has risen. This counterintuitive response highlights the complexity of the housing market's reaction to changes in interest rates. Interestingly, the increase in listings is not uniform across all sectors; the luxury single-family detached homes priced above $3 million actually saw a decrease of 4% in active listings from the previous month, though they are still up 20% year over year. In stark contrast, the segment for homes priced between $300K and $350K experienced an 18% increase in supply during August, a rate more than double that of any other price segment.Delving deeper into the geographical distribution of these changes, Maricopa County, rather than Pinal, witnessed the largest supply surge, particularly in Glendale and West Phoenix. This spike in listings, primarily occurring over an 11-day period from August 15 to August 26, was concentrated in the more affordable ZIP codes of the inner West Valley. These areas are characterized by older housing stock, predominantly from the 1950s and 1960s, but showed no signs of increased distress sales. Remarkably, active single-family listings in these regions rose by 32% across all price ranges, with an even more pronounced increase in the $300K to $350K bracket.This unusual surge in supply within the Inner West Valley prompts speculation about the motivations of sellers in these areas. It appears that homeowners might be seizing the opportunity to list their properties in anticipation of further reductions in interest rates, aiming to secure buyers before committing to purchasing newer, larger homes. This strategy suggests a proactive approach by sellers waiting to upgrade, conditioned by the need to have a buyer lined up as they navigate the complexities of a shifting real estate market.With rates coming down and demand not moving much, It might take rates to come down a lot more for them to make a significant impact on demand. We might need a lot more mortgage rate relief in order to see the demand that a lot of real estate professionals in the industry were calling for. Time to keep your eyes open and pay attention! "He that can have patience can have what he will."-Benjamin Franklin  Have a great week everyone!