After eight sluggish weeks to start the year, the demand side of the market is finally showing real signs of life! Listings under contract have now outpaced the same week in each of the last three years for two consecutive weeks running. We're still a long way from the 2021 and 2022 frenzy, but back-to-back weeks of relative strength is exactly the kind of momentum shift worth paying attention to. Interest rates did tick up slightly over the past week, but they remain well below where they were at this time last year, and that gap between 2025 and 2026 rates continues to widen in buyers' favor.

For those watching the averages, the current headline number of $650,424 is up nearly 3% year over year, but that figure needs context. Strip out the ultra-luxury transactions above $10 million, and the average drops to $627,743, which is essentially flat compared to last year. The core of the market where most of us live and work is holding steady, not surging. That's an important distinction, whether you're a buyer weighing timing or a seller setting expectations.

So what's skewing the numbers? The $10 million-plus segment is having a historic run. Twenty-one transactions have already closed in that tier through early March, more than all of 2022 combined, driving $283 million in dollar volume versus just $77 million over the same period last year. It's a fascinating story, but it's not your story if you're operating in the broader market.

Here's what to watch over the next few weeks: active listing counts have stopped rising. If contract activity holds at this pace while supply stays flat, the Cromford Market Index should reverse course and begin trending upward, a meaningful inflection point. The early signals are encouraging, but we need a couple more weeks of sustained momentum before we can call it a real shift. Stay tuned!

"It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop."
— Confucius

Have a great week, everyone!