Market Update March 23rd, 2026

The turnaround we forecasted last week has arrived! The average Cromford Market Index is up 0.2%, marking the first positive move for sellers after weeks of decline. It is not exactly emphatic, but it confirms the momentum shift we have been tracking for four consecutive weeks. The same eight cities that were moving in favor of sellers last week held their positions again this week: Chandler, Paradise Valley, Tempe, Avondale, Goodyear, Surprise, Queen Creek, and Maricopa. Of those, Goodyear, Maricopa, and Tempe made the largest percentage moves.

Listings under contract climbed to 9,838, up 11.8% compared to the same week last year and extending the streak to four consecutive weeks of outperformance. Pending listings hit 5,555, up 7.3% year over year. Sales per month jumped to 6,851, up 4.1% year over year. Despite mortgage rates climbing for three straight weeks to around 6.43% on the 30-year fixed, demand has not flinched. That resilience is the story right now.

On the pricing front, the average sale price sits at $660,559, up 2.3% year over year, while the median landed at $456,500, down just 0.8% from last year. That gap between the average and median is narrowing, which suggests the core middle market is stabilizing rather than softening further. Monthly dollar volume surged to $4.53 billion, up 6.5% year over year, the strongest volume reading we have seen this year. Appreciation has cooled to 1.0% on a monthly basis, but that is healthy and sustainable compared to the overheated numbers of prior years.

The one challenge sellers still face is supply. Last month it looked like active listing counts were about to peak, but they failed to do so. We are still seeing an upward trend in inventory, which keeps the market from fully shifting into seller territory. The Cromford Market Index is unable to move decisively higher until supply stops increasing. If it does, the CMI is primed to push upward. If it does not, we remain in this balanced-to-slight-seller zone across most of the metro.

Here is what to watch: interest rates are the wildcard. With bond prices down globally, the prospect of lower rates has receded and hopes of a demand recovery have had to be tempered. Cave Creek dropped 11% and Gilbert dropped 9% toward buyers, making them the two fastest-moving buyer-favorable cities this week. Four of the ten seller's markets now sit below a CMI of 120, meaning their advantage is relatively thin. The data says this market is at an inflection point. The next two to three weeks will tell us whether the turnaround holds or stalls!

"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts." - Winston Churchill

Have a great week, everyone!