Over the past several years, pricing trends across the Valley have increasingly diverged, especially between luxury-focused areas and the rest of the market. A newly released chart tracking median sales prices by region rather than by city or ZIP code highlights this split clearly. While overall dollar volume above one million dollars has strengthened, that improvement has been highly concentrated geographically, with the Northeast Valley standing apart from the rest of the region.

When comparing median prices from the second quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2026, the Northeast Valley is the only region showing meaningful price appreciation. Median pricing there rose nearly 13 percent, while every other region experienced declines. Central Phoenix has held up better than most, but even it remains below its 2022 peak. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Pinal County has seen the steepest decline, followed closely by West Phoenix, reflecting weaker demand and heavier supply pressure in more affordability-driven markets.

Adjusting for inflation makes the contrast even more pronounced. The purchasing power of the dollar has declined by roughly 11 percent since 2022, meaning that real price gains in the Northeast Valley are modest after inflation. In contrast, homes in other regions are significantly cheaper in real terms, with effective price declines reaching as much as 25 percent in Pinal County. This reinforces the idea that pricing strength has been isolated to higher-end segments rather than broadly distributed across the market.

When limiting the analysis to single-family homes only, the pattern becomes even clearer. The Northeast Valley shows an 18 percent increase in median pricing since 2022, far exceeding any other region. All remaining areas continue to post declines, though generally smaller than when condos and townhomes are included. The data confirms that the luxury-heavy Northeast Valley has consistently favored sellers, while most other parts of the Valley remain in a much more challenging pricing environment.

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