Phoenix Real Estate Update: Sellers Regain Slight Edge as Inventory Tightens

After several months of buyer-friendly trends, the Greater Phoenix real estate market has begun to shift back in favor of sellers. The average monthly change in the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) rose to 2.7%, up from just 0.4% the previous week. This uptick suggests growing momentum, as seller conditions have improved in 10 of the 17 tracked cities. One of the most influential shifts occurred in Paradise Valley, where supply has dropped dramatically. Only 104 single-family homes are currently listed for sale, down from 140 last year and far below the long-term average of 274. While PV's small size limits its broader impact, other areas are also seeing declining supply, marking a wider slowdown in new listings across the region.

This developing trend is largely being fueled by reduced seller competition, not a rebound in demand. Buyer activity remains weak and stagnant, and there is no strong indication that demand will pick up in the near term. However, fewer listings mean sellers now have a slightly stronger hand when negotiating, particularly in markets where inventory is tightening the most. The first half of 2025 brought a flood of new listings, but that surge has noticeably tapered off, opening the door for modest seller leverage to return.

Still, the shift isn't uniform. Seven cities continue to deteriorate for sellers, including Avondale, Fountain Hills, Mesa, Tempe, Gilbert, Surprise, and Maricopa. Avondale stands out as the weakest, while cities like Maricopa and Gilbert, which have seen robust activity in the past, are now facing increasing pressure from softening conditions. These areas are experiencing rising inventory and cooling buyer interest, which tempers the broader narrative of market improvement.

On the other hand, cities like Cave Creek have surged, with an 11% improvement for sellers over the last month. Glendale, Goodyear, and Scottsdale have also shown positive momentum. While demand remains subdued, these supply-driven dynamics are helping shift some of the leverage back to sellers. As always, local market performance is highly nuanced, and whether you're buying or selling, keeping a close eye on inventory trends remains key.

"It is in your moments of decision that your destiny is shaped."
-Tony Robbins

Have a great week, everyone!