The shift we have been tracking for the last several weeks has effectively stalled. Seven cities are now moving in a direction that favors buyers, two more than last week. Eleven cities are still tilting toward sellers. The overall single-family detached market remains slightly seller-leaning when zoomed out to a 30-day window, but the last 14 days have quietly drifted the other way.
Fountain Hills, Surprise and Maricopa posted the largest seller-side gains. Queen Creek and Cave Creek led the buyer-side moves. The average Cromford Market Index across all cities ticked up 2.2% this week, slower than the 3.1% gain we logged last week. Of the 18 cities we track, 10 sit in seller territory, 2 are balanced, and 6 are in buyer territory. Three of those seller markets are weak (CMI under 120) and could flip into balanced within a few weeks if supply keeps accumulating.
Here is the structural problem. Active listings excluding UCB hit 26,230, a touch below where they were a year ago but climbing every week. Pending sales are running at 5,434. Listings under contract sit at 9,750. The sell side is willing. The buy side is not, except at the top of the market. Luxury buyers are still active, still closing, and still pushing average sale prices up 4.7% year over year to $623,700. Everything below the luxury tier is moving like it is wading through wet concrete.
The Cromford Market Index closed the week at 82.8, down slightly from 83.2 a week ago but still 6.6% above last April. Days on market for active listings stretched to 94. Listing success rate dropped to 72.8%. Average sale price as a percentage of list price held at 97.41%, which means sellers are still negotiating, not capitulating.
What to Watch: The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The market is pricing in a hold, with the next cut not expected until later in the year. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to 6.09% over the weekend, the lowest reading since mid-March. Inflation is still running hot, oil is still elevated from the Iran conflict, and Powell may be giving his last press conference as Fed Chair before Kevin Warsh is confirmed. Any hawkish surprise from the Fed, or any escalation in the Middle East, will bleed into mortgage pricing within hours.
The takeaway: this is a K-shaped market right now. Luxury and entry are running on different tracks. If you are a seller in the $1M-plus range, the math still works in your favor. If you are a seller below that line, your pricing strategy and presentation are what is going to separate the ones that close from the ones that sit. If you are a buyer, you have more leverage this week than you have had in 30 days.
"Ninety percent of all millionaires become so through owning real estate."
Have a great week, everyone!
