MARKET · JUNE 1, 2026

Monday Market Update: Phoenix Lags the National Rebound

The Case-Shiller index released today puts Phoenix 18th of 19 cities for monthly price growth. Locally, prices firmed but the Cromford Index kept cooling to 81.6.

The Signal

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index landed this morning and it tells a national story Phoenix is sitting at the back of. The report covers closings from January through March, so the typical sale in it closed back in mid-February, more than three months ago. Eighteen of the nineteen tracked cities posted monthly price gains and only Tampa slipped, a far broader rebound than last month. Phoenix rose just 0.33% month over month, ranking 18th of 19 and falling two spots. The national average was 0.72%, more than double Phoenix's pace.

Year over year the picture is tougher. Phoenix prices are down 1.63% on the Case-Shiller measure, 15th of 19 cities, while the national average sits at positive 0.67%. Adjust for inflation and 17 of the 19 cities have lower real home prices than a year ago, Phoenix among them. Locally, the current Cromford data runs warmer than that lagging national read: median sale price firmed to $455,000 and the average ticked up to $614,757. But the Cromford Market Index, the leading indicator, eased again from 82.8 to 81.6. Current prices are holding while the forward signal keeps softening.

The Numbers

Active listings excluding under-contract sit at 25,488, down 4.1% from a year ago. Under contract counts moved to 8,532, up 7.5% year over year. Pending listings hit 4,800, up 4.5%. The Cromford Market Index eased from 82.8 last month to 81.6 today. Months of supply held at 3.4, down from 3.7 a year ago. Listing success rate eased to 71.4%. Average sale price rose to $614,757, up 1.2% YoY. Median sale price firmed to $455,000, flat year over year. Monthly dollar volume reached $4.62B across the metro.

What This Means

Two readings of the same market are pointing in different directions, and the gap is the story. Case-Shiller is a rear-view mirror. It blends three months of closings and lands more than a quarter behind the present. By that measure Phoenix is a clear underperformer, near the bottom nationally and negative year over year in nominal terms, worse once inflation is accounted for. Current Cromford data is the windshield. It shows median and average prices firming right now in June.

The tiebreaker is the Cromford Market Index, which leads closed prices by a couple of months and has now eased for several weeks running. When the leading indicator softens while closed prices firm, it usually means the firmness is the tail end of earlier strength, not the start of a new climb. For a seller, that argues for pricing to today's buyer and not to last quarter's comp. For a buyer, the underperformance plus elevated rates is exactly the kind of window that rewards patience and preparation.

What to Watch

Mortgage rates pulled back slightly this week after last week's spike. The typical 30-year fixed eased to roughly 6.55% as the 10-year Treasury settled near 4.45%. The relief is thin and conditional. The ongoing conflict in Iran has kept oil above $90 a barrel, and energy-driven inflation is the single largest force holding rates up. Any move toward de-escalation pulls rates lower; any escalation pushes them back toward last week's highs.

Friday's jobs report is the next real catalyst. A soft number would give Treasury yields room to fall and hand mortgage rates some breathing space heading into summer. A strong one keeps the pressure on. Watch the divergence underneath the metro: the luxury tier moves with the stock market while the entry and mid-tier move with rates. That is why Scottsdale and Paradise Valley keep climbing while Avondale and Queen Creek soften. The Phoenix market is not moving as one.