Market Update April 20th, 2026
Something quietly remarkable is happening in the Phoenix metro housing market! The average home sold through ARMLS has grown from roughly 1,810 square feet in 2006 to 2,035 square feet today. That is a 12% increase in the typical home size, and almost a third of that growth has happened in just the last three years. Phoenix homebuyers, on average, are closing on larger homes than at any point in the last two decades.
Three forces are driving the shift. First, the market has steadily moved toward single-family detached homes and away from condos and townhomes. Greater Phoenix expanded horizontally rather than vertically, pushing development outward into larger-lot suburbs with more square footage per home. Second, the K-shaped economy has concentrated buying power at the top. Top earners continue to absorb luxury inventory while affordability pressures suppress entry-level activity, which means large homes are over-represented in closings and small homes are under-represented. Third, families are not getting bigger. Fertility rates have dropped roughly 23% since 2006, yet homes continue to grow. The extra square footage is going into exercise rooms, home theaters, wine cellars, additional bathrooms, and in the most extreme cases, basketball courts and bowling alleys!
This week's data backs up the trend. The Cromford Market Index sits at 82.8, down slightly from 83.2 last month but well above 78.6 a year ago. Active listings excluding UCB climbed to 26,320, essentially flat year over year. Monthly sales came in at 7,629, up 4.2% from the same period last year, and monthly dollar volume hit $4.77 billion, an 8.6% jump over 2025. Average sale price landed at $625,229 and the median at $452,690. Ten of the 18 largest cities now sit in a seller's market, led by Fountain Hills at 158.4 after a 16% monthly surge! Chandler follows at 154.7 and Tempe at 131.4. On the other side, Goodyear, Surprise, San Tan Valley, Queen Creek, Maricopa, and Buckeye remain in buyer's territory, most of them still below a CMI of 90.
What to watch this week: the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.23% on April 20, the lowest reading in five weeks, as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.26%. Five national lenders are now advertising APRs below 6%. At the same time, the U.S. seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, sending oil prices sharply higher and putting the fragile ceasefire (set to expire Wednesday April 22) at real risk. CPI hit a three-year high driven by war-related oil pressure. The Fed meets April 28-29 with most observers expecting no change. Locally the story remains steady: prices holding, supply stable, volume strong. Pick your price point and know your neighborhood, because the averages hide as much as they reveal. Have a great week, everyone!
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." — Mark Twain
