Market Update April 6th, 2026
March affidavit data from Maricopa County confirms what the weekly numbers have been hinting at: the Phoenix market is splitting into two very different stories. Resale homes are holding their ground. New home builders are not.
There were 7,268 closed transactions in March, up just 2% from a year ago. But adjust for the extra working day this March (22 vs. 21), and closings per day actually fell 3%. The headline number masks a sharper divide underneath. Resale closings hit 6,022, up 7.1% year over year, while new home closings dropped to 1,246, down 17% from March 2025. On a per-working-day basis, new home closings cratered 21%. Builder market share fell to 17.1%, the lowest since June 2022. This is not a temporary blip. This weakness has persisted for many months now.
Pricing reflects the same split. The overall median sale price was $481,370, down 1.8% from March 2025. But the resale median came in at $470,000, down just 1.1%, while the new home median fell to $512,062, down 4.5%. Builders are cutting deeper and still losing volume. The top end of the market continues to vastly outperform the rest in both transaction volume and pricing, which keeps the average sale price from telling the full story.
Looking at the weekly Cromford data, the overall CMI sits at 83.2, barely changed from 83.1 last month. Of 18 tracked cities, 12 are above 100 (seller's market territory) and 12 are moving in a direction favorable to sellers. The biggest gainers this month were Goodyear (+20%), Tempe (+12%), and Maricopa (+11%). The biggest movers toward buyers were Gilbert (-10%) and Cave Creek (-10%). Chandler continues to lead at 154.5.
Supply pressure continues to build. Active listings excluding UCB hit 25,805, up from 25,168 last month and up 49% from two years ago. But months of supply dropped to 3.4 from 4.0, a seasonal improvement as spring transaction volume picks up. Sales per month jumped to 7,580 from 6,221 last month. Appreciation has cooled further to 0.7% monthly, down from 1.4% last month and well below the 6.8% pace from two years ago.
Mortgage rates are hovering near 6.46% on the Freddie Mac 30-year average, up from under 6% in February. The Iran conflict continues to put upward pressure on oil and energy prices, feeding directly into inflation expectations and rate pressure. This week marks the one-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" tariffs. On April 2, the administration strengthened Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, with rates as high as 50%. Manufacturing employment has declined by 89,000 jobs since the original tariffs took effect. Businesses that absorbed tariff costs throughout 2025 are now passing them through to consumers, adding another inflationary headwind. PCE and CPI data releases this week will be critical for Fed guidance ahead of the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where markets expect rates to remain on hold at 3.50%-3.75%.
Phoenix demand has shown resilience through all of this. But the new home sector is clearly struggling, and the broader price picture is softening. This is a market that rewards patience and precision, not aggression.
"Don't be afraid to give up the good for the great." -John Rockefeller
Have a great week, everyone!
