Monday Market Update: An Oasis of Calm

by Nick Calamia

Sellers continue to quietly gain ground across the Phoenix metro. The number of cities moving in a direction favorable to sellers held at 12 this week, while only 6 are shifting toward buyers, the same count we have seen for three consecutive weeks now. Goodyear, Tempe, Maricopa, and Fountain Hills are again delivering the strongest percentage moves in favor of sellers, with Fountain Hills surging 13% month over month to a CMI of 153.3. On the other side, Cave Creek and Gilbert remain the two leading markets shifting toward buyers, each dropping 8% from last month. The overall average CMI rose 3.3% this week, an acceleration from the 2.8% we saw last week and a clear signal that the seller-favorable momentum is building, not fading!

But this is still a nuanced picture. Of the ten seller's markets, three carry weak advantages with CMI readings below 120, including Paradise Valley at 118.4, Mesa at 117.2, and Avondale at 113.2. Six cities remain buyer's markets. Supply continues to climb with active listings (excl. UCB) hitting 26,200, up from 25,336 last month and marginally above the 26,090 level from a year ago. Months of supply holds at 3.5, right in line with seasonal norms. Sellers should take encouragement from the momentum, but it is important to understand this is being driven by demand strength and improving sentiment, not by supply tightening.

On the demand side, sales volume is running strong at 7,538 per month, outpacing last year's 7,303 and two years ago's 7,364. The average sale price landed at $634,596 this month, with the median at $455,000, both up meaningfully from a year ago. Monthly dollar volume hit $4.784 billion, the highest reading in this comparison and a signal that transaction activity is healthy despite the headlines. Appreciation has cooled to 0.4% on a monthly basis, down from 3.5% a year ago, but prices are not falling. The growth rate is flattening as the market seeks equilibrium.

The real estate market across Greater Phoenix remains remarkably stable given what is happening in the rest of the world. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz took effect today at 10 AM Eastern after peace talks between the US and Iran collapsed over the weekend. Oil surged past $100 a barrel, with Brent crude touching $102. Despite futures opening sharply lower this morning, the S&P 500 rallied to close up 1.02% at 6,886, its highest level since before the war began. Markets are betting a deal eventually gets done, but the ceasefire expires around April 22 and the next two weeks will be critical. 30-year fixed mortgage rates eased to the 6.15% to 6.30% range this week, down roughly 30 basis points from the end of March, but oil-driven inflation threatens to reverse that progress. The March CPI report showed inflation running at 3.3% year over year, the fastest pace since April 2024. Tariffs on steel and copper remain at 50%, adding thousands to new construction costs. Goldman Sachs kicked off bank earnings season today with record equities revenue. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo report Tuesday. For homeowners and buyers in Phoenix, the takeaway is this: global chaos creates uncertainty, but local fundamentals remain solid. This is a market that rewards patience and precision, not panic. Watch the data, not the drama!

"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett

Have a great week, everyone!

Monday Market Update: An Oasis of Calm

by Nick Calamia

PHOENIX REALTOR

& GENERAL CONTRACTOR ROC 350115