Market Update September 30th, 2024

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index numbers were published this Tuesday, offering valuable insights into the housing market across 20 major U.S. cities. This index is a key indicator for economists, investors, and policymakers, as it reflects trends in home prices that can influence economic decisions and strategies. The data serves as a critical barometer for understanding regional and national shifts in the real estate market, offering a snapshot of economic health and consumer confidence.

The new report covers home sales during the period from May to July 2024, which means the typical home sale closed in mid-June—over three months ago. It's important to note that Case-Shiller data is inherently lagging; even on the day of its release, it represents market conditions from the recent past rather than current dynamics. This time lag should be considered when interpreting the data, as more recent trends or shifts influenced by factors such as interest rate changes or economic events occurring after mid-June may not be fully captured.

Comparing the latest figures to the previous month's series reveals some notable changes. Last month, all 20 cities showed rising prices, but this month, eight of them experienced declines. Cities like Cleveland (+1.10%), Las Vegas (+0.88%), and New York (+0.52%) led in price increases, while San Francisco (-1.09%), San Diego (-0.58%), and Denver (-0.40%) saw the most significant decreases. Phoenix notably rose from 15th to 11th place, aligning closely with the national average monthly increase of +0.10%. The Northern cities, Las Vegas, and the Southeast remain the strongest regions in terms of price growth.

Examining year-over-year changes, all 20 cities reported positive price movements compared to one year ago, with the national average standing at +5.0%. New York (+8.8%) and Las Vegas (+8.2%) topped the list, indicating robust growth. Phoenix maintained its 15th-place position with a +2.9% change, placing it in the bottom half and well below the national average—a trend consistent over the past five months. Denver (+1.3%) and Portland (+0.8%) remained at the bottom. Las Vegas's strong performance in both monthly and yearly comparisons underscores its resilience in the current housing market.

Compared with the previous month's numbers, we see the following changes:

• Cleveland +1.10%
• Las Vegas +0.88%
• New York +0.52%
• Chicago +0.45%
• Detroit +0.39%
• Miami +0.31%
• Charlotte +0.23%
• Atlanta +0.15%
• Minneapolis +0.14%
• Washington +0.11%
• Phoenix +0.09%
• Boston +0.03%
• Portland -0.01%
• Seattle -0.05%
• Tampa -0.10%
• Dallas -0.11%
• Los Angeles -0.28%
• Denver -0.40%
• San Diego -0.58%
• San Francisco -1.09%

Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:

• New York +8.8%
• Las Vegas +8.2%
• Los Angeles +7.2%
• San Diego +7.2%
• Cleveland +7.0%
• Chicago +6.7%
• Detroit +6.6%
• Boston +6.5%
• Miami +6.5%
• Seattle +6.0%
• Charlotte +5.8%
• Washington +5.5%
• Atlanta +4.5%
• San Francisco +3.4%
• Phoenix +2.9%
• Tampa +2.2%
• Minneapolis +2.0%
• Dallas +1.9%
• Denver +1.3%
• Portland +0.8%

Have a great week everyone!