Phoenix Housing Market Shifts Toward Sellers as Supply Falls

The Phoenix housing market continues its recent shift in favor of sellers, with momentum gaining pace. The average monthly change in the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) now stands at 4.5%, a noticeable increase from last week's 2.7%. This marks the third consecutive week of upward movement. Eleven cities improved for sellers over the past month, while only six showed gains for buyers. Paradise Valley remains a standout, driven by extremely low inventory just 98 single-family homes currently listed, compared to 136 at this time last year. The last time inventory dipped below 100 in PV was during the boom year of 2022.

The underlying reason for this shift is a widespread decline in housing supply across the Valley. Fewer new listings are hitting the market, which has reduced competition among sellers. While demand hasn’t meaningfully increased, the supply constraints are enough to tilt market dynamics back toward sellers in many cities. For homeowners looking to list, this environment presents an opportunity to stand out, especially if your home is priced right and move-in ready.

Not all areas are sharing equally in the shift. Maricopa saw the steepest decline, now sitting at the bottom of the CMI rankings. The city currently has 667 single-family homes for sale, far above its long-term average of 415, suggesting an oversupply that's keeping buyers firmly in control there. This imbalance is a stark contrast to cities like Scottsdale and Cave Creek, where inventory is tighter and seller conditions are improving rapidly.

The takeaway? High-end markets like Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, and Scottsdale are seeing the most seller-friendly conditions, while outer-ring cities like Maricopa and Buckeye remain more favorable for buyers. As we close out summer and head into the fall season, supply trends will be the key driver of price strength or softness across metro Phoenix.

“The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step.”
-Lao Tzu

Have a great week, everyone!