Phoenix Buyer Demand Drops Below Long-Term Average in July 2025

The percentage of listings under contract in July 2025 sits at just 13.4%, significantly below the long-term average of 21.2% observed from 2000 to 2025. This metric serves as a key indicator of market activity, and historically, any value above 24% signals a “hot” market while values below 18% indicate a “cold” one. At 13.4%, the current market is firmly in the cold category, suggesting low buyer engagement and limited contract activity.

Even during the most challenging market periods, such as the 2007–2008 housing crisis, this percentage never dropped below 8%. This historical floor adds important context to today’s numbers, showing that while the market is certainly sluggish, it’s not in uncharted territory. The measurement is also highly seasonal, typically peaking between April and July and bottoming out in the winter months of December through February.

Throughout the last 25 years, we’ve seen spikes in this metric during key periods of market exuberance such as 2005, 2010, 2012, 2021, and 2022. These peaks were characterized by strong buyer demand and robust transaction activity. In contrast, the current reading of 13.4% reveals a lack of urgency and enthusiasm among buyers, especially considering that we are already past the typical seasonal peak.

Year-over-year, this measure has declined from 17% in July 2024, further confirming that the market has not entered a phase of recovery. If and when momentum begins to return, we should expect this number to show year-over-year growth. Until then, buyers remain cautious, sellers must adapt, and the Phoenix-area housing market continues to operate under cool conditions.

"If you don't ask, you don't get."
-Stevie Wonder

Have a great week, everyone!