Market Update March 25th, 2024

In the recent assessment of the real estate market dynamics, a subtle yet noticeable shift has occurred, marking a slight deterioration for sellers compared to the previous week. This trend is reflected in the average change in the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) over the last month, which registered a marginal increase of +0.1%, a decrease from the +0.4% observed earlier. This minor shift indicates a gradual transformation in market conditions, with a discernible expansion in the disparity between the highest and lowest-performing cities in the table, suggesting a nuanced yet significant change in the real estate landscape.

Analyzing the performance of individual cities provides a clearer picture of this evolving market scenario. Among the cities evaluated, seven have shown an improvement in their Cromford® Market Index over the last month, while ten cities have experienced a decline. Mesa and Avondale stand out for their contribution to the positive average, with substantial support from Maricopa and Tempe. However, it's noteworthy that apart from these cities, none have reported percentage increases surpassing 3%. This delineation highlights the concentration of positive momentum within a limited geographical scope. On the flip side, Goodyear and Buckeye are leading the downward trend, with Gilbert now joining their ranks. Buckeye, in particular, has significantly lagged, positioning it firmly at the bottom of the index.

Conversely, Chandler exhibits a different trajectory. Despite losing some momentum in the last few weeks, Chandler's substantial lead at the top of the table ensures its dominance, with no immediate competitors poised to challenge its position. This indicates a robust seller's market in Chandler, contrasting sharply with the downward trends observed in other cities. The city's sustained performance underscores the variable nature of real estate markets, where local dynamics and conditions heavily influence market indices and seller advantages.

Overall, the current market composition reveals that 10 out of the 17 cities surveyed remain seller's markets, indicating that despite the slight shifts, sellers still hold a significant advantage in the majority of these areas. Meanwhile, three cities have achieved a balanced market, and four are characterized as buyer's markets. This distribution underscores the complex and varied landscape of real estate, where market conditions fluctuate between cities, reflecting a diverse array of opportunities and challenges for sellers, buyers, and investors alike. The slight deterioration for sellers highlights the importance of staying informed and agile in a constantly evolving market.

Rates continue to hover around the 7% mark, still holding hostage want-to-be sellers and keeping out buyers looking for an affordable payment. As long as inventory has no major flood of homes and demand stays at this pace, there is no expectation to see prices significantly drop or jump for that matter in these current market conditions. 

"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."
– Warren Buffett

Have a great week everyone!