Canadian Homeowners Selling in Arizona Surge 268% in 2025 — What’s Behind the Trend?

With global tariffs underway, I thought it would be interesting whether more Canadian homeowners are selling their properties in Arizona and returning to Canada. While this is a compelling question, it's difficult to answer definitively since the nationality of homeowners is not recorded in public records, and there are no legal restrictions based on nationality. Additionally, many Canadians may hold dual citizenship or Permanent Resident status in the United States, and some may no longer even have a residence in Canada, making it impossible to track movement solely by citizenship status.

However, a helpful proxy is the tax mailing address listed on the Affidavit of Value, a document filed when a deed is recorded. While not all Canadian homeowners use a Canadian address for tax purposes, this data does offer insight into trends. Historically, Canadians have shown a preference for condos and townhouses in Arizona, with their market share hovering around 3.5 to 3.7% in both Maricopa and Pinal counties. Interestingly, while their share of mobile homes is about 2.4%, they hold over three times the market share of single-family detached homes in Pinal County compared to Maricopa, suggesting differing preferences depending on the region.

When examining active listings, the number of homes with Canadian tax mailing addresses rose significantly over the past year from 114 to 420 marking a 268% increase. This far outpaces the 48% increase in active listings seen in the broader market. Therefore, it’s reasonable to conclude that Canadian homeowners are more likely to be selling their Arizona properties in April 2025 compared to the same time last year. Many of these listings are for condos or townhouses, which aligns with their previous buying trends. Additionally, the weakness of the Canadian dollar compared to the U.S. dollar may be encouraging some to sell and cash out their investments.

Despite this surge in listings, most Canadian property owners are not selling, and their overall presence in the market remains relatively small. Their buying and selling activity does not significantly impact the broader real estate landscape. Moreover, some Canadians are still purchasing homes in Central Arizona, with 71 purchases recorded in Maricopa County in the first quarter of 2025 down from 86 a year earlier, but evidence that movement is not entirely one-sided. Ultimately, while the data shows increased selling activity, the Canadian presence in Arizona real estate remains steady and diverse.

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