Canadian Homeowners Quietly Exiting the Phoenix Market

Over the past 12 months in Maricopa County, 960 homes sold through ARMLS were owned by sellers who had previously registered a Canadian tax mailing address. While this number doesn’t capture all Canadian sellers, such as those who list their Arizona property as their mailing address or sell outside ARMLS, it still offers insight into cross-border activity. With around 16,087 homes in the county tied to Canadian tax addresses at the start of the period, this means about 6% of those homes changed hands, accounting for 1.6% of all home sales. Another 306 Canadian-owned homes are currently listed for sale, representing 1.7% of active inventory. Overall, Canadians are slightly over-represented among sellers, which is statistically notable but not dramatic.

What is dramatic, however, is the sharp drop in Canadian buyers. In the same 12-month span ending August 31, 2025, only 201 buyers had Canadian tax mailing addresses, just 0.27% of all buyers. That figure is down 43% from the previous year and even lower than during the peak of COVID lockdowns. Historically, Canadian buyers have made up around 1.5% of the market, making the current level unusually low. By contrast, Californians, who have a long-term share of 4.4%, are currently at 4.7%, showing no meaningful shift. Total out-of-state buyers currently account for 18% of activity, nearly in line with the 19% long-term average.

One likely reason for the Canadian pullback is unfavorable exchange rates. Back in 2009 and 2010, Canadians were the leading group of out-of-state buyers, even surpassing Californians. They capitalized on the housing crash, purchasing deeply discounted homes during the flood of bank-owned inventory from 2007 to 2011. Today, those market conditions no longer exist, and the weaker Canadian dollar makes U.S. property a less attractive investment.

At this point, Canadians make up less than 0.3% of buyers and 1.7% of sellers in Maricopa County. While they’re not driving demand or dramatically shifting supply, their reduced participation does contribute to a slight imbalance. Still, with just 306 active listings, Canadian sellers are far from flooding the market. Their influence has diminished from what it once was, and for now, their presence is more of a footnote than a headline.

"The best way to predict the future is to create it."
— Peter Drucker 

Have a great week, everyone!