MARKET · OCTOBER 12, 2026

Monday Market Update: Mesa, Gilbert and Glendale Tip Toward Buyers

Three of the metro's largest mid-priced cities read below 100 on the Cromford Market Index for the first time this fall, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley gave back a third of their readings in a month, supply reached 5.1 months, and the 30 year fixed hit 7.40%. Also this week: three years of Northeast Valley price data with the mix stripped out.

The Signal

Three of the metro's largest mid-priced cities crossed the line this week. Mesa, Gilbert, and Glendale all read below 100 on the Cromford Market Index, at 99.5, 99.0, and 97.7, the point where buyers and sellers hold equal footing; three weeks ago they read 111.5, 107.1, and 107.3. That leaves seven of the eighteen cities above 100, and the count by band holds at five seller's markets, five balanced, and eight buyer's markets, though the balanced five are now split, with Phoenix at 102.4 and Avondale at 101.8 just above the line and the other three just below it. For the second straight week every city weakened over the past month, and the average reading is down about 13%. Fountain Hills gave back 34% to 124.7 and Paradise Valley 32% to 135.3, extending slides that began in early September: Paradise Valley has gone from 207.8 to 135.3 and Fountain Hills from 193.4 to 124.7 in five weeks, each down roughly 35%, while Scottsdale, down 5% over the past month to 149.1, keeps first place by falling slowest. Tempe at minus 21%, Maricopa at minus 16%, Surprise at minus 15%, and Mesa at minus 14% were the other large moves. The valley-wide index, which measures the balance between supply and demand rather than prices, reads 72.8, its sixth straight weekly decline from 80.1, against 79.8 a month ago, 79.7 a year ago, and 93.9 two years ago.

A longer view explains how the top of the table can fall this far and still lead. Across homes that closed in the twelve months through August, the Northeast Valley, the region around Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Fountain Hills, posted a median of $425.73 per square foot, up 2.8% from a year earlier and 11.6% from three years earlier, when it stood at $381.50. The other seven regions of the metro combined came in at $242.88, down 1.5% on the year and up just 1.0% over three years. Part of that gap is what sold. The region's median sale price went from $795,000 to $938,000 over the three years, closings at $2 million and up grew from 12.3% to 19.1% of the total, sales at $5 million and up went from 169 to 355, and townhouses and condos, which bring less per foot, slipped from 34.6% to 30.8% of closings. Strip the mix out and the gain is still real: holding the blend of ZIP codes and home types steady, the region's price per foot rose 9.4% in three years, and 771 homes that sold in both windows resold for 10.5% more, against 2.8% for repeat sales in the rest of the metro. Some of those were likely renovated between sales, so call the like-for-like gain 9% to 10%, with one to two points of the headline figure coming from the richer mix. The past twelve months are thinner. Like for like, the Northeast Valley gained 0.7%, so most of its 2.8% headline increase came from the mix, though every other region declined on the same basis. The figures come from recorded county sales rather than MLS closings alone.

The Numbers

Active listings excluding those under contract stand at 26,971, up 6.2% from a year ago and 9.0% from a month ago, a gain of more than 2,200 homes in a month. Listings under contract fell to 6,232, down 11.8% from a year ago and 12.8% in a month, and pending listings dropped to 3,658, down 9.5%. Sales per month came in at 5,340, down 13.9%. Days on market for sales stayed at 84, down from 87 a month ago and 85 a year ago. Months of supply excluding under contract rose to 5.1 from 4.1 a year ago and 4.1 a month ago.

The average sale price finished at $616,968, up 5.0%, while the median came in at $450,000, exactly where it stood a year ago. The average sale price as a share of list slipped to 97.22% from 97.32%. Monthly dollar volume was $3.30B, down 9.6%. Monthly appreciation per square foot ran at 4.9% against 0.6% a year ago, a gain of 4.3 points, and up from 2.0% last month. The listing success rate was 67.0%, level with last month's 67.1% and below last year's 70.2%. Across the eighteen cities tracked, five are seller's markets, five are balanced, and eight favor buyers; seven read above 100 and eleven below it, after Mesa, Gilbert, and Glendale crossed under this week.

What This Means for the High End

Scottsdale at 149.1, Paradise Valley at 135.3, and Fountain Hills at 124.7 are still the three tightest markets in the metro, and two of them have lost about a third of their reading since the first week of September. Both facts should shape a list price. The index says a well-presented home in North Scottsdale or Paradise Valley still meets more buyers than sellers; the direction says those buyers are fewer each week and are no longer paying for urgency. A seller who prices off a summer comp in either town is asking today's buyer to pay for a market that has moved more than 30% on this measure in five weeks. The comps that count are the last thirty days, and the asking prices that hold are the ones that leave the buyer no reason to wait for the next listing. With supply at 5.1 months valley-wide, there usually is a next listing.

The three-year data is the counterweight, and it is worth reading closely because it separates what a Northeast Valley home earned from what a richer mix of sales made it look like. Among homes that sold in both the 2023 and 2026 windows, the gains ran through nearly every price band: homes first bought between $1.5 million and $2 million resold for 18.2% more, homes first bought between $800,000 and $1 million for 14.9% more, and the one group that lost ground, homes first bought under $400,000, slipped 1.5% and was almost entirely townhouses and condos. The $1 million and up tier did well everywhere, 13.6% in the Northeast Valley against 12.1% in the rest of the metro; the real separation was the middle, where homes first bought between $500,000 and $1 million gained 10.7% in the Northeast Valley and 3.4% everywhere else. Homes of $1 million or more made up 46.9% of the region's closings in the twelve months through August and 4.4% elsewhere. For a buyer, that middle tier is the segment that has held value best through two very different years, and it is the segment with the most new listings to choose from this fall. For a seller, the three-year number is not a pricing tool. The past year's like-for-like gain was 0.7%, and the index has moved a long way since August.

One line in that data deserves its own paragraph: some of the homes that resold for 10% more were likely renovated between the two sales, which is to say part of what reads as appreciation was work. In a market with 5.1 months of supply and buyers comparing a dozen listings, the finished house is the one that earns that premium and the dated one is the one that gets negotiated down. Every buyer and seller who works with me gets My Exclusive Renovation Offer: I cover the labor for the renovations, and materials are the client's responsibility. For a seller it means the kitchen, the flooring, or the paint is done before the photos instead of being priced in by the buyer's contractor. For a buyer it means the dated house on the right street in Scottsdale or Arcadia becomes the one nobody else is competing for. Sellers walk out with more money. Buyers walk in with more equity.

What to Watch

Mortgage rates and Treasury yields split this week. Freddie Mac's survey rose to 7.40% for the 30 year fixed on Thursday, up from 7.28% the week before and from about 6.34% a year ago, with the 15 year at 6.73%, and daily surveys ended the week near 7.5%. The ten year Treasury went the other way, closing Friday at 5.24% after 5.32% on Monday, so the gap between mortgage rates and the ten year widened to roughly 215 basis points. The Fed's September minutes, released Wednesday, showed most officials expect one more quarter-point increase by year end, but after the 29,000 jobs print the market has pushed that bet out: odds of a hike at the October 28 meeting fell below 20%, with December now the favored date. Oil is the complication. Crude is back near $90, the national average for gas is $4.36, up $1.25 from a year ago, and the Arizona average is $4.71, which is why Wednesday's September CPI is expected to show headline inflation rising to 3.6% from 3.4% even as core eases toward 2.5%. Retail sales and producer prices follow Thursday, and Chair Warsh speaks Thursday night.

For Phoenix, supply is now the story. Active listings excluding those under contract sit just under 27,000, up more than 2,200 in a month and about 1,600 from a year ago, months of supply reached 5.1 against 4.1 both a month ago and a year ago, and days of inventory climbed to 129 from 117. Demand thinned at the same time: pending listings are down 14.7% in a month, listings under contract 12.8%, and closed sales run 13.9% below a year ago. Prices have not followed yet. The median is level with last year at $450,000, the average is up 5.0%, and the monthly price per square foot is up 4.9%, which is the Northeast Valley mix at work rather than broad appreciation; measured like for like, every region outside it lost ground over the past year. On the ground, a seller in Mesa, Gilbert, or Glendale who priced off August is now competing with more listings and fewer buyers at once, and the first two weeks on market decide whether the home sells near asking or sits into the holidays. In Scottsdale and Paradise Valley the index still favors sellers, but the swing of the last five weeks says buyers there have stopped paying for urgency. At 7.40%, the payment on an 80% loan against the median home is about $160 a month higher than it was at 6.75% in late August, and with 5.1 months of supply that is a cost buyers can increasingly negotiate back in price or concessions.

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Source: Cromford Associates LLC