MARKET · OCTOBER 19, 2026

Monday Market Update: Prices Hold While Supply Climbs

Supply rose by about a third in a month and every city's index fell again. The median price barely moved, and the reason why matters for anyone pricing a home this fall.

The Signal

The supply side moved sharply over the past month. Months of supply excluding listings under contract reached 5.4, up from 4.1 a month ago and 4.2 a year ago, and active listings excluding those under contract climbed to 27,543, an increase of 2,391 in a month. Buyers moved the other way. Listings under contract fell to 6,158 from 7,030 a month ago, and closed sales are running at 5,096 a month, down 16.4% from a year ago. The Cromford Market Index, which measures the balance between supply and demand rather than prices, fell to 70.5, down from 80.1 in early September with a lower reading every week since.

Every one of the eighteen cities tracked lost ground over the past month for the third week running. Phoenix slipped under 100 to 99.5 and Avondale to 98.5, which leaves five cities above that line: Scottsdale at 144.2, Paradise Valley at 127.3, Chandler at 117.6, Fountain Hills at 115.3, and Cave Creek at 111.4. Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills fell hardest, down 32% and 34% over the past month, and Paradise Valley now sits 40% below the 212.1 it read in late August.

The Numbers

Active listings excluding those under contract stand at 27,543, up 7.1% from a year ago. Listings under contract fell to 6,158, down 14.8%, and pending listings fell to 3,653, down 12.4%. Sales per month came in at 5,096, down 16.4%. Days on market for sales held at 84 against 85 a year ago. Days of inventory rose to 132 from 119 a month ago. The average sale price as a share of list price was 97.22%, against 97.35% a year ago. Monthly dollar volume was $3.17B, down 12.4%. The listing success rate slipped to 65.8% from 67.9% a month ago and 69.4% a year ago.

Prices have barely moved through any of it. The median sale price came in at $448,245, down 1.0% from a year ago, after reading $450,000 both a month and a quarter ago. The median price per square foot for the month ending October 15 was $250.34, a tenth of a percent below the month before and the smallest of three straight monthly declines, though it sits 1.0% under last year and at the lowest level for any month since April 2023. The average sale price is up 4.7% to $621,110 and monthly appreciation per square foot ran at 4.2% against 1.8% a year ago, and both reflect the mix of what is closing more than broad gains: sales of $1 million and above were 10.0% of all closings in the month to October 15, against 8.9% the month before, and they accounted for 33.2% of total dollar volume, against 29.1%. Distress remains a small share of the market but keeps edging up: 94.6% of homes under contract are ordinary sales, matching the lowest reading of the year, against 97.2% a year ago.

What This Means for the High End

The luxury numbers look contradictory this week, and they are not. Homes over $1 million are a larger share of closings than they were a month ago, while Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills posted the steepest index drops in the valley. A closing records a contract signed thirty to sixty days earlier; the index reflects the market as it stands now. The high-end homes closing this month went under contract when Paradise Valley read above 180. The next round of high-end contracts is being negotiated in a market that has shifted well toward buyers since.

If you own in North Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Arcadia, or the Biltmore corridor, that lag is the pricing risk to manage. A comparable sale that closed in September was negotiated in August, in a stronger market than today's. Scottsdale still leads the table at 144.2, but it fell 9% over the past month, and with 5.4 months of supply valley-wide, buyers at every price point have time to compare. The honest anchor is the contracts written in the last thirty days and the active listings you are competing against today.

That is where the contractor license earns its keep. Every buyer and seller who works with me gets My Exclusive Renovation Offer: I cover the labor for the renovations, and materials are the client's responsibility. With more homes to choose from, condition becomes the tiebreaker. On the sell side that means the kitchen, the flooring, or the paint gets handled before photos rather than negotiated away at inspection. On the buy side it means a dated house in the right location, priced for its condition in a market with more supply, becomes workable instead of disqualifying. Sellers walk out with more money. Buyers walk in with more equity.

What to Watch

Inflation came in a tick hot. September's consumer price index rose 3.7% from a year ago, up from 3.4% in each of the two prior months and above the 3.6% forecast, while core prices rose 2.6% against 2.5% expected. Gasoline did most of the work, up 9.1% in the month and 34.2% over the year, with the wars in Iran and Ukraine keeping energy prices elevated. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, its first increase since July 2023, and meets again October 28. Odds of a hike at that meeting rose after the inflation report and fell back below 20% after Chair Warsh said on Friday that he does not prejudge meetings; Goldman Sachs expects a pause in October and a final increase in December. Mortgage rates have not followed Treasury yields lower. Freddie Mac's survey held the 30 year fixed at 7.40% on October 15, unchanged from the week before and up from 6.27% a year ago, while the ten year Treasury eased to about 5.10% from 5.24% a week earlier.

For Phoenix, the payment and the inventory now point the same way. A $360,000 loan, 80% of a $450,000 home, runs about $2,493 a month in principal and interest at 7.40%, against about $2,221 at last year's 6.27%, roughly $270 more for the same house. That gap lands just as months of supply reaches 5.4, so buyers have more homes to choose from and less room in the monthly budget for each one. The pipeline does not point to a price break yet. Homes under contract as of October 15 carry a median list price of $255.52 a square foot, essentially level with $255.45 a month earlier, which points to closed prices holding near flat into mid-November; the weak spot is the number of contracts, down 14.8% from a year ago. Two dates before the next update: housing starts and pending home sales on Tuesday, and the Fed on October 28, a week before the November 3 midterm elections.

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Source: Cromford Associates LLC