MARKET · NOVEMBER 9, 2026

Monday Market Update: Opendoor Cuts Deeper Than the Market

Opendoor reported a $218 million quarterly loss on Thursday and has more than three times as many Phoenix listings as it did a year ago. In the middle of the market it has cut prices on 78% of them, against 58% for other sellers, and its sales are landing at 94% of the original asking price. Also this week: Chandler left the seller's band, supply reached 5.8 months, and the October jobs report came in at 165,000.

The Signal

Opendoor, the company that buys homes for cash and relists them, is marking its inventory down faster than the sellers around it. It posted its quarterly numbers on Thursday: across the country it bought 4,865 homes from July through September, better than four times the year-ago count, sold 2,728, closed the quarter holding 7,596, and lost $218 million. The local picture matches. County deeds show 238 purchases across Maricopa and Pinal counties in the quarter against 65 a year before and 185 resales, the third quarter in a row it took in more homes than it sold, and as of November 7 it had 265 homes actively listed here against 82 a year ago. The pricing is where it separates from everyone else. Among single-family resales that first hit the market between $311,000 and $650,000, the band that holds most of its inventory, 78% of Opendoor's active listings carry at least one price cut, against 58% for all other sellers; back in May the two groups stood at 57% and 55%. Its reductions also run larger, a typical 4.6% against 3.8%, and its sales are closing further from where they started: 96.7% of the original asking price in the spring quarter, 95.3% over the summer, and 94.0% since October 1, while other sellers slipped only from 97.5% to 96.8%. Its speed advantage is gone too. In May a typical Opendoor listing was 27 days old, about half the age of the listings around it; today it is 60 days against 57. None of this is 2022, when the company had 1,887 homes listed here in August, had cut 93% of its mid-priced listings by December, and closed that quarter at 81.3% of original list. What carries over from 2022 is the order of events: a corporate seller reprices on a spreadsheet, not on hope, and its cuts showed up before the rest of the market's did.

The market it is selling into has moved since it bought. Most of this year's purchases were made while the Cromford Market Index sat in the low 80s; the index, which measures the balance between supply and demand rather than prices, now reads 64.3, its ninth straight weekly decline from 80.1, against 73.9 a month ago, 78.1 a year ago, and 88.8 two years ago. With a reading that far under the 90 line where conditions begin to favor buyers, the more likely path for prices outside the luxury tier in the coming months is down rather than flat, so the homes Opendoor acquired in the spring and summer will be resold into softer conditions than the ones it paid for, and its discounts are more likely to grow than shrink. The city table moved the same direction. Chandler fell 13% over the past month to 106.2 and dropped out of the band above 110, leaving Scottsdale at 129.8 and Paradise Valley at 112.5 as the only seller's markets. Gilbert slipped to 89.4 and became the eleventh buyer's market, with five cities still balanced. Paradise Valley gave up nearly eight points in a week, the largest weekly drop in the table, and now trails Scottsdale by about 17 points. Fountain Hills, at 95.0, has lost half its reading since early September. Two small counterpoints: Avondale and Queen Creek each ticked up a fraction of a point on the week, the first weekly gains by any city since at least late September, and the average decline across the eighteen cities, about 15% over the past month, has held steady for three weeks instead of deepening.

The Numbers

Active listings excluding those under contract stand at 28,225, up 9.5% from a year ago and 6.4% from a month ago, and about 400 more than a week ago after last week's pause. Listings under contract came in at 5,960, down 18.8% from a year ago, though up from 5,749 a week ago, and pending listings at 3,579, down 15.3%. Sales per month came in at 4,865, down 19.7%. Days on market for sales rose to 86 after five straight weeks at 84, against 84 a year ago. Months of supply excluding under contract edged up to 5.8 from 4.6 a month ago and 4.3 a year ago, and days of inventory reached 136 from 126.

The average sale price was $607,699, up 2.8% from a year ago but down from $612,473 a month ago, and the median held at $444,000, down 1.3% from $450,000 a year ago. The average sale price as a share of list was 97.30%, level with last year's 97.34%. Monthly dollar volume fell to $2.96B, down 17.5%. Monthly appreciation per square foot ran at 2.0% against 1.6% a year ago, a gain of 0.4 points, but half the 4.0% of a week ago, as the average price per square foot slipped back under $300. The listing success rate was 61.6%, against 67.9% a month ago and 68.2% a year ago. Across the eighteen cities tracked, two are seller's markets, five are balanced, and eleven favor buyers, from three, five, and ten a week ago; three cities read above 100 and fifteen below it.

What This Means for the High End

Opendoor does not operate at the top of the market, and that is the first thing the high end should take from this. No institution is repricing a Paradise Valley estate on a schedule, and the competition a luxury seller faces is other owners, most of whom can wait. That insulation covers one risk, not all of them. Paradise Valley fell 20% over the past month to 112.5 and gave up nearly eight points in the last week alone; it read 212.1 in late August. Scottsdale, at 129.8, is down 14% on the month, and Chandler's exit from the band above 110 leaves those two as the only seller's markets in the valley. Three more points and Paradise Valley joins the balanced group. A seller in North Scottsdale or Paradise Valley still holds better odds than a seller anywhere else in the metro, and in Paradise Valley those odds have narrowed every week since Labor Day.

The second thing is where the price pressure lands. The index measures leverage, not price, and with the valley-wide reading at 64.3 the leverage in the middle of the market has shifted far enough that closed prices are likely to follow. The luxury tier has been the exception all fall: the average sale price is still 2.8% above last year while the median is 1.3% below it, which is the high end holding the averages up. That support thinned this week. The average sale price slipped to $607,699 from $623,306 a week ago and appreciation per square foot halved to 2.0%, the pattern you would expect when fewer high-end homes close in a given month. Closings trail contracts by thirty to sixty days, and the contracts that would be closing now were written while Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills were each losing about a third of their index readings. For homes over $1 million, the takeaway is not that prices are falling. It is that fewer of them are selling, and a thinner stream of high-end closings will stop flattering the valley-wide averages.

The third is what an institutional seller competes on, and what it does not. Its edge is price and speed, and its homes are typically refreshed rather than renovated: paint, carpet, and a quick turn. When that seller starts cutting, the lightly refreshed house becomes the cheapest comparable on the street, and an owner's home has to win on something a spreadsheet does not offer, which is condition done properly at a price set to today's contracts. Every buyer and seller who works with me gets My Exclusive Renovation Offer: I cover the labor for the renovations, and materials are the client's responsibility. For a seller it means the kitchen, the flooring, or the paint is finished before the photos, so the home competes on condition instead of chasing a corporate seller down in price. For a buyer it means a discounted listing that needs a real kitchen rather than a coat of paint becomes the opportunity instead of the compromise. Sellers walk out with more money. Buyers walk in with more equity.

What to Watch

The October jobs report came in far stronger than expected: 165,000 new jobs against a consensus near 60,000, unemployment down to 4.1%, the two prior months revised up by a combined 84,000, and wages up 3.1% over the year. That keeps a December hike in play, with futures pricing roughly an 80% chance for the December 9 meeting. Mortgage rates fell anyway, for a third straight week: Freddie Mac's survey put the 30 year fixed at 7.18% on Thursday, down from 7.24% and from the 7.40% peak in mid October, though still a full point above last year's 6.17%, and the ten year Treasury closed Friday at 4.86%. Two things pulled yields down. Oil dropped hard on reports of mediated proposals now in front of both Washington and Tehran, with Brent settling Friday at about $98 from roughly $118 a week earlier and trading near $93 on Monday, and the national average for gas is back to $4.00 from $4.37 a month ago. Technology stocks also sold off again, the Nasdaq down 3.4% on the week, which sent money into bonds. In Tuesday's midterms Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, with some races still uncalled; the new Congress is seated January 3, which sets up divided government for the next two years. The next test is Tuesday's October CPI, forecast at 0.3% for the month after September's 0.6%. It will carry no official year-over-year figure, because October 2025 prices were never collected during last year's shutdown, and the bond market is closed Wednesday for Veterans Day.

For Phoenix, the Opendoor numbers are a pricing tool, not just a headline. If you are selling a home between roughly $300,000 and $650,000, an Opendoor listing in the neighborhood is the competitor most likely to cut next and to cut by more, and its closings, at 94% of original list against about 97% for everyone else, are comps the next buyer and the appraiser will both see. Price against where those listings are going, not where they started. If you are buying in that range, those same listings are where the measurable discount is: on a home first listed at $450,000, the gap between 94.0% and 96.8% is about $12,600, and the seller on the other side finished September with 7,596 homes to move and no reason to hold out on any one of them. Above that range the picture is different. Scottsdale and Paradise Valley are the last two seller's markets, the average sale price is still 2.8% above last year, and the pressure on prices sits mostly in the middle of the market, where the supply is. The rest of this week's numbers cut both ways. Supply resumed its climb after last week's pause, to 5.8 months, and closed sales are 19.7% below last year; but listings under contract rose by about 200 on the week, mortgage rates have fallen three weeks running, and at 7.18% the payment on an 80% loan against the $444,000 median is about $2,406 a month, roughly $50 less than at October's peak and still about $240 more than a year ago.

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Source: Cromford Associates LLC