Pinal County Home Values Down 17% From Peak When Adjusting for Inflation and Concessions

At a median sales price of $371,090, Pinal County’s housing market has experienced a decline of just over 8% from its peak of $405,000, which was reached during the second quarter of 2022. The majority of this drop occurred between June 2022 and February 2023. Since the first quarter of 2023, prices have seen slight upward movement, although there was a minor dip around 12 months ago. On the surface, this suggests that the housing market has stabilized somewhat after the initial downturn.

However, this straightforward analysis overlooks two critical factors: inflation and seller concessions. Due to the significant decrease in purchasing power of the U.S. dollar caused by inflation between the second quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2024, the current median sales price of $371,090 is equivalent to $343,805 in 2022 dollars. Additionally, seller concessions have risen sharply during this time, both in frequency and value. The share of transactions involving seller concessions has more than doubled, and the median concession amount has increased from $4,500 to $10,000. Accounting for inflation and concessions, the effective value of homes in Pinal County is approximately 17% lower than it was at the market's peak.

The Cromford Market Index (CMI) further highlights the market's shift toward buyers in Pinal County. For all areas and property types tracked in the ARMLS database, the CMI sits just below 90. However, many of Pinal County’s largest markets, including Maricopa, unincorporated San Tan Valley, Florence, Coolidge, Casa Grande, and Arizona City, have experienced CMI readings below 90 for an extended period, indicating a prolonged buyer’s market. Gold Canyon has recently dipped below this threshold within the last two weeks, while Apache Junction stands as the lone exception, maintaining a CMI well above 100.

Casa Grande serves as a prime example of this trend. The most recent monthly median sales price for single-family homes in Casa Grande is $316,000, marking the lowest figure since January 2023 and reflecting a 20% drop from the June 2022 peak of $395,000. With a CMI of just 52.8, a reading below 90 for the past 14 months, and nearly five months of available supply, it is unsurprising that pricing weakness has persisted. In contrast, Maricopa County offers a more favorable environment for sellers, particularly in its central and northeastern regions, where market conditions remain relatively strong. However, areas like Buckeye, Surprise, and Goodyear have also shown weakness, albeit to a lesser degree than Pinal County overall.

“The successful man will profit from his mistakes and try again in a different way.”
—Dale Carnegie

Have a great week everyone!