MARKET · JUNE 8, 2026

Monday Market Update: Foreclosures Are Still 50% Below Normal

The fear-driven headlines do not match the data. Trustee sale activity in Maricopa County sits far below its historical baseline, even as local prices firm and the Cromford Index holds at 81.6.

The Signal

It is worth pausing on foreclosures this week, since the fear around them keeps outrunning the facts. The legal term in Arizona is a trustee sale, and it shows up in two measures. A Notice of Trustee Sale starts the process. A Trustee Deed completes a foreclosure that was never cancelled along the way. Across residential Maricopa County, both measures have settled back to roughly where they sat before the pandemic: somewhere around 400 to 500 notices filed each month, 100 to 150 completed foreclosures, and close to 300 notices that get cancelled before they ever finish.

History gives that the right frame. Foreclosure filings surged from 2006 to 2008 and served as an early warning for the crash that ended with Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Activity peaked in 2009 and then drifted down for more than a decade until the COVID moratorium pushed it sharply lower in 2020. Measured against 2004, a reasonable stand-in for normal at roughly 1,000 notices and 400 completed foreclosures a month, today's pace runs about 50% below normal. The trend is rising, but slowly, on a path consistent with a return to normal over about five years. And the homeowner base is far larger now: Maricopa County has grown from an estimated 3.5 million people to 4.7 million over those 22 years, which is a real cushion.

The Numbers

Active listings excluding under-contract sit at 25,105, down 3.8% from a year ago. Under contract counts moved to 8,573, up 6.3% year over year. Pending listings hit 4,888, up 4.0%. The Cromford Market Index held at 81.6, down from 82.5 last month but up 12.1% from a year ago. Months of supply sat at 3.3, down from 3.7 a year ago. Listing success rate eased to 71.3%. Average sale price rose to $624,642, up 2.5% YoY. Median sale price firmed to $457,500, up 0.8% year over year. Monthly dollar volume reached $4.71B across the metro.

What This Means

The fear narrative leans on percentages and skips the absolute level. Yes, filings are up versus 2024, and a big percentage move makes for an easy headline. But a jump from a very low base is still a very low number. There is a whole genre of content built on scaring people about a foreclosure wave that the underlying data does not support. The honest read is that distress in Maricopa County is running roughly half of what a normal year looks like, on a slow upward path back toward normal, with a much larger homeowner base absorbing it.

A market on the edge of a foreclosure wave does not look like this one. Prices are firming, not breaking. Median and average sale prices both rose this month and are positive year over year. Inventory is below where it sat a year ago. Distress is below normal. None of that rules out a slower second half driven by rates, but it is the opposite of a 2008 setup. If we ever do see the data turn, you will hear it here first, plainly stated. Until then, the foreclosure panic is noise.

What to Watch

Friday's jobs report changed the rate conversation. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May against a forecast near 85,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. A labor market that strong reads as inflationary, and bond traders responded fast. The 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.54%, the 2-year hit its highest level since February 2025, and markets are now pricing a possible quarter-point Fed hike before year-end rather than a cut. The typical 30-year fixed sits near 6.50%.

Wednesday's CPI release on June 10 is the next real catalyst. A hot inflation print on top of a hot jobs report would cement the higher-for-longer scenario and keep pressure on mortgage rates through summer. Oil remains near $92 a barrel on the ongoing conflict in Iran, which keeps a floor under inflation expectations. The luxury tier keeps climbing on stock-market strength while the rate-sensitive middle softens. Scottsdale and Paradise Valley are the clearest examples this week.