Weekly Market Updates

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Maricopa County Home Sales Dip in August as Prices Hold Steady

The analysis of Maricopa County's real estate market for August reveals some significant trends and fluctuations compared to previous periods. In August, there were 5,936 closed transactions, a decrease of 9.0% from 6,556 in the same month of the previous year, and a 6.2% decline from July's figures
Phoenix-Area Housing Supply Climbs Sharply in August Despite Rate Relief

The real estate market exhibited a notable shift in August, with the supply of active listings without a contract increasing by 5.5% since the beginning of the month. This upturn is particularly significant when compared to the same period last year, showing a 57% increase as of September 1, 2023. T
Maricopa & Pinal Construction Booms While Re-Sales Lag Behind

The rebound of single-family building permits in Maricopa and Pinal counties in 2024 represents a significant recovery in the construction sector. As of July, there have been 18,498 new single-family units authorized, marking an increase of over 40% compared to the same period in 2023. Despite this
Summer Slowdown Hits Phoenix Luxury Market, But Recovery Likely Ahead

The high-end real estate market often experiences a significant slowdown during the summer months, which can cause noticeable distortions in market averages, particularly those related to pricing. This seasonal dip is a common occurrence, affecting the overall market dynamics and skewing data that r
Phoenix Real Estate Market Shows Early Signs of Stability as Rate Drops Settle

The trends in the CMI (City Market Index) over the past month indicate a gradual recovery in several key markets, despite a varied performance across different cities. Over the past month, there has been an average decline of -1.8% in the CMI, showing a slowing in the rate of decline when compared t
Maricopa County Sees Slight Uptick in Closings as Buyers Watch Falling Rates

In July 2024, Maricopa County recorded a total of 6,360 closed real estate transactions, reflecting a 4.6% increase from the previous year's figure of 6,081 in July 2023, but a slight 4.1% decrease from June's numbers. Of these, 1,378 were newly constructed homes, marking a modest growth of 1.9% com
What the NAR Settlement Means for Real Estate Commissions in 2024

The imminent settlement of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Commission has introduced a cloud of uncertainty and confusion within the real estate industry. The Council of Multiple Listing Services (CMLS), representing 225 MLS providers nationwide, has refrained from offering best practice
Phoenix Home Prices Up 202% Since 2001—But Not Really

In discussing real estate prices on this market update, I primarily present figures in nominal dollars, as is common practice. However, this approach can be misleading when comparing the affordability of homes today to those from decades past. Specifically, using nominal dollars to discuss price cha
Cromford Index Slide Slows as Mortgage Rates Dip Below 7%

Over the past month, the average change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI) has been a notable -7.2%, a more significant decline than the -6.9% observed the previous week. However, there is a silver lining as the rate of decline appears to be slowing. This week’s -0.3% change is an improvement compar
Split Buyer Demand Defines July 2024 Housing Market Across Price Ranges

In recent analyses of the real estate market, particularly focusing on the single-family detached segment, we have delved into contract ratios across various price ranges, comparing data from July 1st, 2024 to the same date in 2023 and 2022 (See 2nd graph below). This examination provides a comprehe
Maricopa & Pinal Counties See Surge in Building Permits Amid Market Shift

The housing market in Maricopa and Pinal counties is experiencing a notable surge in new construction activities, as evidenced by the substantial number of building permits issued for single-family homes. In May 2024 alone, authorities issued 2,740 permits, marking a 22% increase compared to the 2,2
Phoenix Housing Market Slips as Seller Momentum Fades

In the real estate market, recent trends have shown a pronounced decline, with the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) recording an average drop of 5.0% over the past month. This decrease is sharper compared to the 3.4% fall observed last week, signaling an intensification of the downward trajectory initia
Phoenix Buyer Demand Hits 17-Year Low: What’s Holding the Market Back?

In the current real estate market, week 23 of 2024 has seen a startlingly low number of homes under contract, with only 8,238 listings—a number that hasn't been this dismal since 2007. The data highlights a concerning trend, as not once this year has the market managed to surpass the already low tot
Why Median Sales Price Offers Better Insight Into Market Trends

In the realm of real estate analysis, the median sales price is often preferred by analysts due to its robustness in handling data of varying quality and its ability to ignore extreme values at both ends of the spectrum. Despite the relatively small number of transactions in the luxury market, these
Phoenix Resale Market Cools as Contract Ratio Falls to 46.1

The real estate resale market is currently experiencing a slight downturn, as evidenced by an increase in available inventory coupled with a persistent lack of buyer interest. A critical tool for gauging this trend is the contract ratio, which offers a comparison between the number of active listing
Mortgage Rates Drop for 3rd Week — Refinances Rise, Buyers Hesitate

Last week, mortgage interest rates experienced a decline for the third consecutive week, which led to a surge in refinancing activity. Despite this decrease, the response from homebuyers remained tepid. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index, the total mo
Why New Construction Homes Dominate the Phoenix Market in 2024

If you’re in the market for a home in Phoenix, many of the properties you see will likely be new builds. In the first quarter of this year, about 33.4% of single-family homes available for sale were newly built, nearly double the pre-pandemic levels. This trend is not necessarily due to an increase
Phoenix-Area Seller's Markets Expand Slightly as CMI Edges Higher

Once again, we are seeing small signs of improvement in the market for sellers in certain sub-markets. This trend is particularly evident in the changes observed in the Cromford® Market Index (CMI). Over the past month, the average change in CMI is +1.8%, slightly up from +1.7% last week. This gradu
Phoenix Real Estate Sets New Record at $308/SqFt — Again Defying Crash Predictions

Over the past four days, the ARMLS database has recorded a significant milestone in the real estate market, with the monthly average price per square foot for closed listings across all areas and types surpassing $308, setting a new record at $308.01. This achievement not only marks a historic high
Phoenix Price Cuts Surge — But Don’t Mistake It for a Crash

The real estate market has recently witnessed a substantial number of price reductions, with almost 9,000 price cuts observed over the last four weeks. This is a rate not seen since January of the previous year. This sudden surge in price reductions is reminiscent of the period between June and Dece
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