MARKET · SEPTEMBER 28, 2026

Monday Market Update: Paradise Valley Falls 22% in a Month

The top of the table gave back its summer in one month, Scottsdale moved into second, and the 30 year fixed crossed 7%. Also this week: what 170,000 listings say Coming Soon actually does, and where Arizona is still building.

The Signal

The top of the market gave back its summer in one month. Paradise Valley fell 22% over the past month, from 210.7 to 164.4 on the Cromford Market Index, the largest decline in the table, and Fountain Hills fell 20% to 152.2. Three weeks ago those two read 207.8 and 193.4; both have now given back about 21% since. Scottsdale, up 3% to 157.8, moved past Fountain Hills into second place and is the only city near the top still improving. Lower down, Phoenix and Mesa both slipped under 110, so the count is now five seller's markets, five balanced, and eight buyer's markets, from seven, three, and eight a week ago. Only Scottsdale and Avondale improved on the month, Buckeye held flat, and the other fifteen weakened; the average across all eighteen readings is down roughly 9% from a month ago. The valley-wide index, which measures the balance between supply and demand rather than prices, reads 76.9: its fourth straight weekly decline, from 80.1 four weeks ago, and below the 80.3 of a month ago and the 81.1 of a year ago.

New construction is not the source of the pressure. Arizona issued 2,097 single-family permits in August, 2.8% below August 2025 and the third straight month within 3% of the prior year, after running 20% to 35% below it through most of the past year. The level is low, the weakest August since 2015 and 31,087 permits over the last twelve months, the fewest since the fall of 2023, but the slide has stopped. Where the building happens matters more than the total. Year to date, Gilbert permits are down 43%, Mesa 36%, Peoria 31%, and Phoenix 10%, while Florence is up 42%, Apache Junction 29%, the City of Maricopa 25%, and Buckeye 9%, enough for Buckeye to pass Surprise as the second busiest permitting city in Maricopa County. Permits lead closings by six to twelve months, so the new homes that follow land mostly on the fringe and in Pinal County from 2027 on. A resale seller in Arcadia or North Scottsdale will face less brand-new competition next year; a seller in Buckeye or Maricopa will face more.

The Numbers

Active listings excluding those under contract stand at 25,686, up 3.7% from a year ago and 8.5% from a month ago, a gain of about 2,000 homes in a month. Listings under contract fell to 6,821, down 6.5% from a year ago and 9.3% in a month, and pending listings dropped to 4,062, down 3.1%. Sales per month came in at 5,585, down 10.9%. Days on market for sales eased to 85 from 87 a month ago, level with last year. Months of supply excluding under contract rose to 4.6 from 3.9 a year ago and 3.9 a month ago.

The average sale price finished at $594,075, up 2.7%, while the median came in at $450,000, exactly where it stood a year ago. The average sale price as a share of list improved to 97.46% from 97.31%. Monthly dollar volume was $3.32B, down 8.5%. Monthly appreciation per square foot ran at 2.9% against a negative 1.8% reading a year ago, a swing of 4.7 points, though it cooled from 3.7% last month. Across the eighteen cities tracked, five are seller's markets, five are balanced, and eight favor buyers; Phoenix at 108.3 and Mesa at 107.6 are the two that crossed into balanced territory this week.

What This Means for the High End

Paradise Valley at 164.4 is still the tightest market in the metro, and it is 21% below where it stood three weeks ago. Both facts matter. The first says a well-priced home there still meets more buyers than sellers. The second says the buyers who set the summer prices are fewer now, with the 30 year above 7% and about 2,000 more homes on the market valley-wide than a month ago. A seller in Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, or North Scottsdale who prices off a July or August comp is pricing off a market that has moved a fifth in a month. The comps that count are the last thirty days, and Scottsdale, still improving at 157.8, is the one place near the top where the summer read still holds.

Then the question every fall seller asks: is Coming Soon worth it? At the top of the market nearly four in ten listings start there, against one in four across the metro. Measured like with like, the same agent, the same ZIP, the same price band, the same month, Coming Soon listings sold for 97.8% of list against 97.9% for listings that went straight to Active, were about two in a hundred more likely to sell, and took about six days longer to reach a contract counted from the day buyers could first see them, because most showings wait for the Active date. One to three days in Coming Soon cost nothing; more than two weeks added about 25 days. What it reliably delivers is a lower days-on-market figure once the listing goes live, and that has real value, because buyers read a high number as a problem with the house. What it does not deliver is a bidding war or a better price. Its practical job is the MLS clear cooperation rule, which requires a listing to be entered within a day of any marketing: Coming Soon lets that happen while the photos and staging catch up. Use it, cap it at a few days, and have the photos ready before the clock starts.

The permit data adds one more point for the established neighborhoods. New single-family construction is thinning out in the core and growing on the fringe, so in Arcadia, the Biltmore corridor, or Paradise Valley the closest thing to a new house a buyer will find next year is a renovated one. That is the gap the contractor license fills. Every buyer and seller who works with me gets My Exclusive Renovation Offer: I cover the labor for the renovations, and materials are the client's responsibility. For a seller it means the kitchen, the flooring, or the paint is finished before the photos instead of being negotiated away at inspection. For a buyer it means the dated house on the right street becomes the one nobody else can find. Sellers walk out with more money. Buyers walk in with more equity.

What to Watch

Freddie Mac's survey crossed 7% on Thursday: 7.03% for the 30 year fixed, up from 6.95% the week before and from 6.30% a year ago, the first reading above 7% in more than a year. Daily rate surveys ran higher still, around 7.2% into Monday, with the ten year Treasury at 5.17% at Friday's close. Two releases this week can move that number. August PCE, the inflation gauge the Fed cares most about, lands Wednesday with core last read at 3.3%, and the September jobs report lands Friday against a prior print of 162,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment; Congress passed a stopgap that keeps the government open, so both publish on schedule. A hot inflation print pushes the ten year higher. A weak payroll number is the one item on the calendar that would argue for the Fed to stop after a single hike.

For Phoenix, the read is that the demand side keeps thinning while prices hold: the median is flat against a year ago at $450,000, the average is up 2.7%, and sale-to-list is 97.46%, so the homes that sell are still selling near asking. What has changed is how many of them sell. Closings are down 10.9% from a year ago and under-contract counts are down 6.5%, with about 2,000 more homes on the market than a month ago. That is a market that rewards a seller who prices to the last thirty days and presents the house finished, and it is a market where a buyer at the top has more choice than at any point this year. New-home supply will not change that picture in the established cities before 2027, and when it does arrive it lands on the fringe.

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Source: Cromford Associates LLC