MARKET · SEPTEMBER 7, 2026

Monday Market Update: Paradise Valley Crosses 200

The valley average has not moved in a year. The cities underneath it moved more this month than they have all year.

The Signal

The Cromford Market Index, which measures the balance between supply and demand rather than prices, reads 80.1 today against 80.7 a month ago, 81.6 a quarter ago, and 80.6 this time last year. Four readings, a range of a point and a half, all of them well inside buyer's market territory. If that were the whole story, this would be the quietest market in recent memory. It is not the whole story.

Underneath that flat average, the individual cities are moving harder than they have all year. Paradise Valley crossed 200 on the index, finishing at 207.8 after starting the month at 184.7, a 13% move over the past month. Fountain Hills added 10% to reach 193.4 and Scottsdale added 6% to reach 156.0. At the other end of the same table, Maricopa fell 9% to 52.6, Glendale fell 8% to 111.7, and Phoenix itself fell 6% to 115.6.

The Numbers

Active listings excluding those under contract stand at 24,210, up 1.6% from a year ago, though about half a percentage point of that comes from the Sedona and Verde Valley listings that migrated into the ARMLS system during 2025 rather than from new supply in the metro. Listings under contract fell to 6,951, down 5.7%, and pending listings fell to 4,122, down 3.2%. Sales per month came in at 5,920, down 6.6%. Days on market for sales stretched to 88 from 86. Months of supply excluding under contract rose to 4.1 from 3.8 a year ago and 3.6 a month ago.

The average sale price finished at $588,856, up 4.0%, while the median came in at $447,990, up 1.6%. The average sale price as a share of list price improved to 97.37% from 97.27%. Monthly dollar volume was $3.49B, down 2.9%. Monthly appreciation per square foot ran at 3.2% against a negative 3.4% reading a year ago, a swing of 6.6 points, though it has cooled from 4.2% last month. The listing success rate climbed to 66.6% from 60.3% a month ago, still short of last year's 68.2%. Across the eighteen cities tracked, eight are seller's markets, three are balanced, and seven favor buyers. Gilbert slipped just under the seller's market line to 109.7 and Tempe dropped into buyer's territory at 88.3.

What This Means for the High End

Paradise Valley at 207.8 and Buckeye at 50.9 sit four times apart on the same scale, in the same metro, in the same week. A seller in Paradise Valley is operating in one of the tightest markets in the country. A seller in Buckeye is competing for a shrinking pool of buyers and has to price for it. The valley average of 80.1 describes neither of them. If you own in North Scottsdale, Arcadia, or the Biltmore corridor, the numbers that govern your pricing are your segment's median dollars per square foot and your closest three comparable sales, not the 80.1 index and not the $447,990 metro median.

The price data carries the same signature as the city table. The average is up 4.0% and the median is up 1.6%, which means the top of the market is doing the lifting. That is worth reading carefully in both directions. It says a well-positioned high-end home is still finding its buyer. It also says the strength is narrow, and a home that is priced like the top but does not present like the top is not part of that group. With days on market at 88 and buyers holding enough choice to be selective, condition is the tiebreaker.

That is where the contractor license earns its keep. Every buyer and seller who works with me gets My Exclusive Renovation Offer: I cover the labor for the renovations, and materials are the client's responsibility. On the sell side that means the kitchen, the flooring, or the paint gets handled before photos rather than negotiated away at inspection. On the buy side it means a dated house in the right location becomes workable instead of disqualifying. Sellers walk out with more money. Buyers walk in with more equity.

What to Watch

The August jobs report landed Friday and it landed hot. Payrolls grew 162,000 against an average of 31,000 a month over the prior year, unemployment held at 4.1%, and June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000. That is the opposite of the labor market softening that would have made a September cut arguable. Chair Warsh spent Jackson Hole arguing that financial conditions were not restrictive enough to slow the economy, and a payroll print five times the recent trend does not weaken that case. Futures now put the odds of a quarter point hike on September 16 at 58%, roughly where they sat a week ago, and the two year Treasury moved from 4.36% to 4.42% on the report.

For Phoenix the question is what reaches the mortgage. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30 year fixed at 6.71% on September 3, up from 6.66% the week before and up from 6.50% a year ago, so buyers are financing at a higher rate than they were last fall before the Fed decides anything. August CPI arrives Friday, September 11, with July's headline at 3.4% and core at 2.5%, and the Fed meets on the 16th. Rates rising into the fall listing season would pressure the middle of the market first, and the middle is already where the softness is. The top of the market, where Paradise Valley and Scottsdale are tightening, is the least rate sensitive segment in the valley, so a hike would more likely widen the spread in this week's city table than close it.

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Source: Cromford Associates LLC