Market Update April 15th, 2024

Over the past month, the real estate market dynamics, as measured by the Cromford® Market Index (CMI), have seen a subtle yet noticeable shift. The average change in the CMI across various locations has increased by +0.3%, a modest rise from the previous week’s stagnant zero percent change. This alteration presents a complex landscape, with some cities experiencing significant improvements for sellers, while others face substantial declines.

A detailed breakdown (see graph below) of the changes in the CMI reveals a division in market trends among seventeen cities. Ten of these cities have recorded an increase in their CMI, indicating a shift towards conditions more favorable to sellers. In contrast, seven cities have witnessed a decline in their index, suggesting a turn towards buyer-friendly conditions. This distribution mirrors the situation from the previous week, showing a consistent pattern in market behavior across these locations.

Focusing on individual cities, Tempe, Goodyear, and Paradise Valley have emerged as the standout locations where conditions have shifted markedly in favor of sellers. They are closely followed by Avondale and Scottsdale, which have also seen significant seller advantages. On the other hand, Fountain Hills, Queen Creek, Cave Creek, and Buckeye are moving towards a market more favorable to buyers, with Peoria trailing just behind in this trend. Notably, Buckeye continues to struggle, positioned at the bottom of the table, while Chandler remains the leading city with the most robust seller's market.

Analyzing the broader market conditions, the balance between seller's markets, balanced markets, and buyer's markets remains unchanged from the previous week. Currently, ten of the seventeen cities are classified as seller's markets, three maintain a balanced market status, and four are categorized as buyer's markets. This consistent mix underscores the varied yet stable market conditions that continue to define the regional real estate landscape.

I expect some of this landscape to change pretty drastically next month if rates continue to stay at this level after peaking at 7.4% as of today! However, if SUPPLY stays at this level like I have been saying for the last year, then pricing shall not see any major crash, instead days on the market will drag out even longer. Only those who NEED to sell will slash their pricing to offload an unwanted or undesired property.

"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives."
-Jackie Robinson

Have a great week everyone!