Market · September 14, 2026

Monday Market Update: The Index Slips Below 80

The valley index slipped under 80 as listings rose and closings fell 10%. Thirteen of eighteen cities moved toward buyers over the past month, and a golf course view turned out to be worth anywhere from nothing to 91%.

The Signal

A week ago the Cromford Market Index read 80.1, a hair from where it sat a month, a quarter, and a year earlier, and the story was how little it had moved. This week it reads 79.4, below all three of those comparison points and the lowest reading on the table. The index measures the balance between supply and demand rather than prices, and both sides of that balance pushed the same way over the past month. Active listings excluding those under contract grew by about 1,100 homes to 24,724, up 4.8% in a month, while closed sales fell to 5,577, down 10.4% from a month ago and 10.5% from a year ago. More homes on the market and fewer of them closing is exactly how months of supply moves from 3.8 to 4.4 in the space of a month.

The city table turned with it. Thirteen of the eighteen cities moved toward buyers over the past month and only five moved toward sellers; a week ago that split was eight and ten, and the average across all eighteen fell about 2% after slipping a fraction of a percent the week before. Paradise Valley, which crossed 200 in last week's table at 207.8, reads 196.1 this week, down 2% over the past month as supply in the town starts to build again. Fountain Hills at 186.5 and Scottsdale at 158.3 are still up on the month, 5% and 6%, and hold the second and third spots. The bigger moves are lower on the table. Maricopa fell 11% to 50.7, Surprise fell 9% to 72.8, Tempe fell 8% to 85.0, and Peoria dropped 5% to 89.3, which takes it under 90 and into buyer's market territory. That leaves seven seller's markets, three balanced, and eight favoring buyers.

The Numbers

Active listings excluding those under contract stand at 24,724, up 2.4% from a year ago and 4.8% from a month ago; roughly half a point of the annual figure is still the Sedona and Verde Valley inventory that moved into the ARMLS system last year rather than new metro supply. Listings under contract fell to 7,195, down 4.0%, and pending listings slipped to 4,310, down 0.8%. Sales per month came in at 5,577, down 10.5%. Days on market for sales edged up to 87 from 86. Months of supply excluding under contract rose to 4.4 from 3.9 a year ago and 3.8 a month ago.

The average sale price finished at $583,222, up 1.1%, while the median came in at $446,512, down 0.2%; a week ago those two read up 4.0% and up 1.6%, so most of the lead the top of the market held over the middle has closed. The average sale price as a share of list improved to 97.49% from 97.22%. Monthly dollar volume was $3.25B, down 9.5%. Monthly appreciation per square foot ran at 1.2% against a negative 2.7% reading a year ago, a swing of 3.9 points, though it has cooled from 3.3% last month. The listing success rate rose to 66.1% from 60.0% a month ago, still short of last year's 68.7%. Across the eighteen cities tracked, seven are seller's markets, three are balanced, and eight favor buyers, with Peoria the newest name in the last group.

What This Means for the High End

The most useful number this week is not on the index. The county assessor flags parcels with a golf course view, which makes it possible to measure what course frontage is actually worth across the metro, size for size, so the extra square footage of a typical course-side home does not get credited to the view. The answer is that the premium is real, and that it runs from nothing to nearly double within a twenty minute drive. In Mirabel, homes on the course price 91% higher per square foot than comparable homes off it. Grayhawk is 37%, DC Ranch 33%, Biltmore Estates 24%, and the Pinnacle Peak corridor 22%. The same measurement in Rio Verde comes back at minus 2%, which is noise, and Gainey Ranch and Troon come in under 2% and under 5%. Those are not marginal golf communities. They are some of the best known in the state.

The difference is scarcity, not the quality of the golf. In Rio Verde, four of every ten homes back onto a fairway, and when the view is the normal condition buyers stop paying extra for it, because the alternative is another home with the same view. In DC Ranch, about 6% of homes carry the flag, and the premium is 33%. Fountain Hills makes the same point with mountain views: nearly half its parcels carry a premium view flag, and the flag adds roughly 2.5% per square foot, because a great view there is not rare. For anyone pricing a home in North Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, or the Biltmore corridor, a lot premium is not a fixed percentage to add to a valuation. Its value is set by how many of the neighbors have the same thing, and that ratio is knowable before the sign goes in the yard. It cuts the same way for buyers: pay for a view where it is scarce and it holds at resale; pay for one where it is common and you are paying for something the market will not pay you back for.

Condition works the same way, and it is the one scarce variable a seller controls. Every buyer and seller who works with me gets My Exclusive Renovation Offer: I cover the labor for the renovations, and materials are the client's responsibility. On the sell side, the kitchen, the flooring, or the paint gets done before the photos rather than negotiated away at inspection, which matters more in a month when closings fell 10% and buyers have more to choose from. On the buy side, a dated house on a scarce lot becomes workable instead of disqualifying. Sellers walk out with more money. Buyers walk in with more equity.

What to Watch

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and the market has all but written the statement for it. August CPI landed Friday at 3.4% year over year, unchanged from July, with core at 2.4% against 2.5% the month before. The headline was held up by gasoline, which rose 3.9% in August alone and sits 27.4% above a year ago. Futures moved from a 58% chance of a quarter point hike a week ago to 85% after the inflation print and about 90% by Monday morning. Three members already voted to raise in July, and a hot jobs report plus a 3.4% headline gives Chair Warsh the cover to join them. The bond market is not waiting for Wednesday: the ten year Treasury crossed 5% on Monday, touching 5.01% before settling just under, and the two year sits at 4.67%.

For Phoenix, the mortgage is where this lands. Freddie Mac's survey put the 30 year fixed at 6.76% on September 10, up from 6.71% the week before and from 6.35% a year ago, its highest reading in about a year, and daily quotes ran near 6.9% on Monday with some surveys above 7% as the ten year crossed 5%. That rate arrives in the same month that supply jumped and closings fell 10%. Watch two segments. The middle of the market is the most rate sensitive part of the valley and already where this week's softness sits, so a hike on Wednesday reaches it first. The top of the table, where Paradise Valley just gave back part of its summer run, is the least rate sensitive segment there is; if it keeps softening from here, the cause is supply, not the Fed.

Source: Cromford Associates LLC