Phoenix Housing Market Gains Momentum as Seller Conditions Widen

The seller-friendly trend in the Phoenix-area housing market continues to accelerate for the fourth straight week, driven primarily by falling supply. The average monthly change in the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) now sits at +8.4%, a noticeable uptick from last week’s 6.9%. This positive momentum favors homeowners looking to list, especially in high-end markets where inventory is extremely tight. Paradise Valley is once again leading the charge with only 92 active single-family homes listed without a contract, its lowest level in more than three years and far below its long-term average of 273.

Of the 17 cities tracked, 15 improved for sellers this month, while only Maricopa and Tempe shifted slightly in favor of buyers. Higher-end markets are seeing the biggest gains. Cave Creek posted a massive 28% increase in its CMI, followed by Scottsdale at 21% and Fountain Hills at 17%. Gilbert and Avondale also showed double-digit improvements, though they lag behind the luxury zones in terms of velocity.

Despite these improvements, the broader market still shows a mixed landscape. We now have five cities categorized as seller’s markets, though three are still fairly weak; five cities are balanced, and seven remain buyer’s markets. This blend reveals a nuanced dynamic, where price point and geography play a significant role in how the market feels to participants on the ground.

Overall, with supply continuing to drop and interest rates hovering near recent lows, sellers in many areas are gaining leverage. However, demand remains relatively muted, which keeps the rally in check for now. If supply continues to tighten through the fall, more cities may shift toward a seller-friendly position, especially if buyer sentiment improves with more favorable mortgage rates.

“For the great doesn’t happen through impulse alone, and is a succession of little things that are brought together.”
—Vincent Van Gogh

Have a great week, everyone!