Market Update October 7th, 2024

In September 2024, Maricopa County's real estate market witnessed a noticeable decline in closed transactions for single-family homes and townhouses/condos, as revealed by the recently analyzed affidavits of value. The total number of closed transactions stood at 5,584, marking a decrease of 5.3% from the 5,896 transactions recorded in September 2023 and a 6.4% drop from August 2024. This decline is particularly significant considering there were 21 working days in September 2024 compared to 20 in September 2023; under consistent daily closing rates, an increase of 5.0% would have been anticipated.

New home sales were notably impacted, with 1,441 closed transactions—a sharp decline of 11.3% from the 1,624 closings in September 2023 and a slight 0.8% decrease from August 2024. Resale transactions also fell, albeit less dramatically, with 4,143 closings representing a 3.0% drop from 4,272 in September 2023 and an 8.2% decrease from the previous month. Despite these declines, the new home market share remained robust at 25.8% in September 2024, though this is a reduction from 27.5% a year earlier.

Amid declining transaction volumes, median sales prices demonstrated resilience. The overall median sales price in September 2024 was $471,995, reflecting a 4.9% increase from September 2023 and a modest 0.4% rise from August 2024. The median sales price for resale homes held steady at $450,000, up 2.3% from the previous year but unchanged from the prior month. New homes experienced a more substantial increase in median sales price, reaching $518,792—an 8.3% rise from September 2023 and a 1.0% uptick from August 2024. However, it's noteworthy that the combined peak median sales price remains at $490,000, achieved in May 2022, indicating current prices are still 3.7% below that peak.

The data paints a picture of low transaction volumes coupled with stable pricing, suggesting a market with a slight excess of supply over demand. Looking ahead, there's an expectation for a modest improvement in transaction volumes and for prices to remain stable, albeit with a slight downward tendency due to current market conditions. While the market faces challenges in sales volume, the stability in pricing offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for Maricopa County's real estate sector.

Rates jumped back up to about 6.5% Friday afternoon so we will have to keep an eye if they keep rising. I think they will continue to hover around this point up until the election or if whispers start if the Fed is looking to cut rates again any time soon and by how much.

“What you lack in talent can be made up with desire, hustle, and giving 110% all the time.”
– Don Zimmer

Have a great week everyone!