Market Update February 12th, 2024

Reflecting on the latest trends in the real estate market, it's interesting to see a slight increase in the percentage of the list price that sellers are achieving with the contract price, which has risen from 96.61% to 97.58% since last year. This uptick, albeit modest, signals a shift towards a somewhat more optimistic market sentiment compared to the previous year. However, when I delve deeper into the numbers, the Cromford® Market Index, which I rely on to gauge market dynamics, tells a more nuanced story. Currently, the index sits at 117.5, just shy of last year's 120.8, and it seems to be hovering without clear direction, unlike last year when it was on a steady ascent.

The data currently paints a complex picture of the market, with both demand and supply on the rise. Ordinarily, this balance would suggest an increase in market activity. Yet, any growth in sales is so minimal that it's barely noticeable, especially when considering the seasonal adjustments that are part and parcel of our industry. This subtlety in market movement becomes even more evident when I look at the year-on-year growth in listings under contract. This year, there's been a 59.9% increase since the beginning of the year, just a tad lower than last year's 60.6%, and it started from a lower base point, which adds another layer of complexity to the analysis.

From a personal standpoint, the current market scenario doesn't provide much to get excited about for those of us eager for clear signs of positive momentum. Conversely, for those bracing for a market downturn, the situation is equally uneventful. The slight increase in listings under contract is positive, but it's not substantial enough to indicate a robust shift in market dynamics. It feels like we're in a holding pattern, waiting for a sign or a shift that could dictate our next moves in the market.

Arizona's real estate market, with its notorious boom and bust cycles, seems to be taking a breather for now, firmly positioned in neutral gear. This period of equilibrium, devoid of significant ups and downs, might not satisfy those of us looking for decisive market trends. Yet, it offers a moment of reflection, a pause to assess and strategize for when the market decides its next course, which is an integral part of navigating the ever-changing landscape of real estate.

Rates slowly went up last couple of weeks so slowing the demand momentum we have seen since start of the year.

 "It is during our darkest moments that we must focus to see the light."
- Aristotle

Have a great week everyone!