Market Intelligence
Report

Sellers: Supply jumped from 3.4 to 5.2 months, and just 5 of 110 measured zips remain at three months or less. With 54.7% of active listings already cut, pricing to the market from day one is what separates a sale from a stale listing. North Phoenix (85024, 85050), Chandler 85226 and Scottsdale 85254 are the fastest-clearing zips.

Buyers: Fifty-three zips now carry five or more months of supply, up from 19 in August, so most of the metro has room to negotiate. Financed buyers pulled back harder than cash buyers, lifting the cash share to 24.3%. In the luxury core, Arcadia leads the metro with 18 coming-soon listings at a $2.1M median, and Paradise Valley has 12 at a $10.9M median, all visible to agents before they reach the portals.

85255 Scottsdale leads at 53.8% cash, and the top ten leans on north Scottsdale, Arcadia and the retirement corridors of Sun City West, Sun City and Sun Lakes. Metro-wide, cash closings held near 700 on a 30-day pace while financed closings fell about 27%, lifting the cash share from 18.6% to 24.3%. The speed gap is widest in 85258 Scottsdale: 26 days for the median cash deal against 90 for financed.

August came in at 1,468 single-family permits, the lowest month in the 24-month window but only 4.0% below last August. June and July each ran just 1.2% under their year-earlier levels, after declines of about 32% last fall and 16% to 18% in April and May, so permitting has leveled off at a lower base. The trailing twelve months total 22,472, down 13.9% from the prior twelve, which leaves the new-construction pipeline thinner than a year ago even as resale supply climbs.

The leverage map flipped since August: seller-favoring zips fell from 42 to 5, balanced zips rose to 52, and 53 now favor buyers. North Phoenix 85024 is the tightest at 2.1 months, while Wickenburg 85390 runs 12.2. Metro-wide supply moved from 3.4 to 5.2 months as active listings rose 20% and the closing pace slowed about 21%.

54.7% of active listings have cut price, essentially unchanged from August's 54.6%, but the pressure has moved to central Phoenix and Tempe: 85006 Phoenix and 85283 Tempe lead at 71% reduced. Every zip on the board is above 60%, with median cuts from $11,200 to $30,000.

489 homes are staged as coming soon across Maricopa County, up from 417 in August. Arcadia (85018) leads with 18 at a $2.1M median and the board's highest incoming ratio at 11.8%, and Paradise Valley shows 12 at a $10.9M median. The luxury core's next wave of inventory is already visible to connected agents, weeks before the portals.

Paradise Valley posted the 6th highest luxury median sale price in North America in September: $4,292,500 for single-family homes.

Four of the six single-family luxury markets favor sellers, led by Mesa at a 28.6% sales ratio. Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills sit in buyer territory: Paradise Valley's 11.1% ratio means roughly one in nine of its luxury listings sold in September. In attached luxury, Scottsdale is balanced at 15.4% while Fountain Hills leans to buyers at 9.1%.