Phoenix Metro & Scottsdale
Market Intelligence
Report
Phoenix metro is mostly seller-favored at the zip level, but cash share is concentrated, single-family permits dropped 36.5% year-over-year, and price reductions now run above 60% of active listings in eight zips. The metro average means little. The zip you are buying or selling in means everything.
Buyers: Permit volume is down 36.5% YoY, meaning future supply is shrinking even as today's inventory shows seller pressure in pockets. Translation: leverage exists right now in the zips with high reduction rates and 4+ months of inventory, but it will compress as new construction continues to slow through 2026.
Cash Buyer Intelligence
Cash buyers shop a different market. They close faster, accept fewer contingencies, and concentrate in specific zips. Across Maricopa, 21.4% of single-family closes in the last 30 days were cash. The top ten zips by cash share clear that average by a wide margin.
Building Permit Pipeline
Building permits forecast supply 12 to 18 months out. Maricopa County single-family permits hit 1,584 in January 2026, down 36.5% from January 2025 and well below the prior 24-month peak. Construction is pulling back, which tightens future supply for resale just as today's market shows pockets of seller pressure.
Absorption Rate
Months of supply is the cleanest read on negotiating power. Under 3 months means sellers run the table. Over 5 means buyers do. Across Maricopa zips with meaningful sales volume, 78 run seller-favored, 34 are balanced, and 2 are buyer-favored.
| Zip | Area | Active | Sold | MoS | DOM | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85028 | PV Village | 36 | 34 | 1.06 | 27 | SELLER |
| 85202 | Mesa | 26 | 24 | 1.08 | 50 | SELLER |
| 85210 | Mesa | 25 | 20 | 1.25 | 54 | SELLER |
| 85225 | Chandler | 71 | 53 | 1.34 | 38 | SELLER |
| 85326 | Buckeye | 460 | 146 | 3.15 | 53 | BALANCED |
| 85142 | Queen Creek | 433 | 126 | 3.44 | 48 | BALANCED |
| 85383 | Peoria | 468 | 125 | 3.74 | 54 | BALANCED |
| 85396 | Buckeye | 450 | 117 | 3.85 | 62 | BALANCED |
| 85262 | North Scottsdale | 350 | 44 | 7.95 | 94 | BUYER |
| 85253 | Paradise Valley | 211 | 23 | 9.17 | 88 | BUYER |
Price Reduction Velocity
Reduction rate measures seller pressure inside the active inventory: how many of today's listings have already cut their original price. Above 60%, the zip is in correction. Eight Maricopa zips currently sit there, with median cuts ranging $17,300 to $37,550.
| Zip | Area | Active | Reduced | Rate | Med. Cut % | Med. Cut $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85303 | Glendale | 65 | 44 | 67.7% | 3.3% | $18,550 |
| 85008 | East Phoenix | 60 | 40 | 66.7% | 2.6% | $20,000 |
| 85006 | Central Phoenix | 56 | 37 | 66.1% | 6.0% | $30,000 |
| 85361 | Wittmann | 85 | 55 | 64.7% | 3.3% | $20,000 |
| 85387 | Surprise | 585 | 373 | 63.8% | 3.3% | $17,300 |
| 85248 | Chandler | 186 | 118 | 63.4% | 5.5% | $30,201 |
| 85257 | Scottsdale | 102 | 64 | 62.7% | 4.3% | $37,550 |
| 85375 | Sun City West | 217 | 134 | 61.8% | 5.4% | $24,900 |
Pre-Market Inventory
Coming Soon listings are inventory that has not hit Zillow, Realtor.com, or any consumer portal yet. They show what is about to compete or what you can preview before the public sees it. 496 Maricopa SFRs are currently in Coming Soon status. Here are the seven zips with the most.
| Zip | Area | Coming Soon | Active | Incoming % | Med. Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85383 | Peoria | 16 | 468 | 3.3% | $867,500 |
| 85331 | Cave Creek | 14 | 210 | 6.2% | $957,450 |
| 85255 | North Scottsdale | 13 | 309 | 4.0% | $1,780,000 |
| 85249 | Chandler | 13 | 190 | 6.4% | $774,900 |
| 85326 | Buckeye | 13 | 460 | 2.7% | $350,000 |
| 85297 | Gilbert | 12 | 111 | 9.8% | $685,000 |
| 85142 | Queen Creek | 11 | 433 | 2.5% | $780,000 |