Market Intelligence Report
Phoenix Metro & Scottsdale
Market Intelligence
Report
Where cash buyers are concentrating, where builders are pulling back, and what it means for your next move.
5,979
SFR Sales Closed
Last 30 Days
21.9%
Paid Cash
1,311 transactions
1,584
SFR Permits Pulled
▼ 36.5% YoY
52%
Listings Reduced
9,744 price cuts
What You Need to Know
Sellers: In luxury submarkets, 40-70% of buyers pay cash. Price correctly and you close fast with fewer contingencies. Price wrong and you join the 52% that already cut. PV median cut: $355K.
Buyers: You're competing against cash in Scottsdale and PV, but over half the listings have already reduced. That's leverage. The permit pullback means less new inventory in 2027.
Buyers: You're competing against cash in Scottsdale and PV, but over half the listings have already reduced. That's leverage. The permit pullback means less new inventory in 2027.
Section 01 — Cash Buyer Concentration
Cash Buyer Intelligence
21.9% of SFR closings were all-cash. In luxury submarkets, that doubles or triples. Cash demand compresses timelines and typically precedes price appreciation.
Cash Buyer Ratio by Zip Code
Cash vs. Financed Closing Speed
85258 Gainey
26
Cash DOM
64
Fin. DOM
38 days faster
85251 Old Town
27
Cash DOM
79
Fin. DOM
52 days faster
85028 N. Phoenix
23
Cash DOM
47
Fin. DOM
24 days faster
Key Signal
Nearly 7 in 10 Paradise Valley homes sold for cash at a $5.05M median. In 85262, cash buyers target $2.65M while financed buyers sit at $1.26M. Different buyer pools, same zip code.
Section 02 — Future Supply Signal
Building Permit Pipeline
Permits pulled today become homes 12-18 months from now. When builders slow production, future inventory tightens and existing home values get structural support.
24,422
↓ 18.2%
2025 Full Year
29,846
Baseline
2024 Full Year
1,584
↓ 36.5%
Jan 2026
10,428
↓ 24.7%
Trailing 6 Mo
Single-Family Permits
Key Signal
5,424 fewer permits in 2025 means 5,424 fewer homes competing with yours in 2027. July-October 2025 saw 30-35% monthly declines, and January 2026 dropped 36.5%.
Section 03 — Demand Depth
Absorption Rate
18,748 active listings. 5,979 closings. 3.1 months of supply metro-wide. The zip-level story is where the real intelligence lives.
86
Zips ≤3 MoS
SELLER
43
Zips 3-5 MoS
BALANCED
13
Zips 5+ MoS
BUYER
| Zip | Area | Active | Sold | MoS | DOM | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85028 | North Phoenix | 33 | 29 | 1.1 | 38 | Tight |
| 85258 | McCormick / Gainey | 88 | 41 | 2.1 | 40 | Tight |
| 85260 | Scottsdale / Shea | 93 | 37 | 2.5 | 38 | Tight |
| 85254 | Scottsdale / Kierland | 168 | 60 | 2.8 | 44 | Tight |
| 85016 | Biltmore | 93 | 31 | 3.0 | 44 | Balanced |
| 85255 | N. Scottsdale / DC Ranch | 350 | 94 | 3.7 | 41 | Balanced |
| 85018 | Arcadia | 166 | 37 | 4.5 | 49 | Balanced |
| 85253 | Paradise Valley | 219 | 43 | 5.1 | 66 | Loose |
| 85251 | Old Town Scottsdale | 115 | 22 | 5.2 | 53 | Loose |
| 85262 | N. Scottsdale / Rio Verde | 359 | 55 | 6.5 | 80 | Loose |
Key Signal
McCormick Ranch at 2.1 months with 46% cash is the tightest luxury submarket in the Valley. North Scottsdale luxury at 6.5 months with 359 active listings is where buyers have real leverage.
Section 04 — Seller Pressure
Price Reduction Velocity
52% of active SFR listings have reduced at least once. Median cut: 3.9% ($24K). In the luxury tier, the dollar amounts are far more significant.
| Zip | Area | Active | Reduced | Rate | Med. Cut % | Med. Cut $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85016 | Biltmore | 94 | 61 | 64.9% | 4.8% | $50,000 |
| 85258 | McCormick / Gainey | 88 | 53 | 60.2% | 6.6% | $98,000 |
| 85268 | Fountain Hills | 140 | 84 | 60.0% | 5.5% | $75,500 |
| 85018 | Arcadia | 166 | 92 | 55.4% | 4.6% | $100,000 |
| 85266 | Pinnacle Peak | 136 | 74 | 54.4% | 6.1% | $100,000 |
| 85253 | Paradise Valley | 220 | 111 | 50.5% | 6.2% | $355,000 |
| 85255 | N. Scottsdale / DC Ranch | 349 | 164 | 47.0% | 5.5% | $114,550 |
| 85262 | N. Scottsdale / Rio Verde | 359 | 164 | 45.7% | 6.4% | $125,000 |
Key Signal
Paradise Valley sellers are cutting by a median of $355,000. Biltmore leads at 64.9% reduced. Every price cut resets your DOM clock and signals weakness to every buyer watching.
Section 05 — What Zillow Can't Show You
Pre-Market Inventory
677 Coming Soon listings are staged to go active but not yet publicly searchable. My clients see this before the competition.
| Zip | Area | Coming Soon | Active | Incoming % | Med. Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85254 | Kierland | 21 | 167 | 12.6% | $1,349,000 |
| 85018 | Arcadia | 13 | 166 | 7.8% | $2,750,000 |
| 85262 | N. Scottsdale | 13 | 359 | 3.6% | $2,900,000 |
| 85255 | DC Ranch | 12 | 349 | 3.4% | $2,374,500 |
| 85258 | McCormick / Gainey | 9 | 88 | 10.2% | $1,665,000 |
| 85268 | Fountain Hills | 8 | 140 | 5.7% | $895,250 |
| 85253 | Paradise Valley | 6 | 220 | 2.7% | $10,024,544 |
Key Signal
Kierland has 21 Coming Soons against 167 active (12.6% incoming wave). McCormick Ranch has 9 against 88 (10.2%). Sellers: new competition is arriving. Buyers: fresh options in 2-4 weeks.