Market Update November 11th, 2024

In 2024, the active listing trend has taken an unusual and unexpected turn, visible in a recent spike in available listings. Represented in light blue, the 2024 trend line reveals a sharp jump over the last two days, with listings approaching the 22,000 mark. This sudden increase has pushed 2024's listings above the levels seen in 2016 and 2015, making it necessary to look back a decade, to 2014, to find a November with more supply in the early to mid part of the month. Such a spike in November suggests potential shifts in the housing market, leaving many wondering about the cause.

At the start of 2024, January's listings were actually lower than January 2023’s count. Yet, a distinct shift occurred as the spring months progressed. Unlike most years, when active listings tend to decline during the spring, 2024 maintained a steady or increasing number of listings through that period. Typically, this trend might be expected to taper off as we approach the holidays, with listings usually decreasing between mid-November and the end of December. However, the recent jump has defied this pattern, sparking concern and speculation about whether it signals a larger trend or market anomaly.

This unexpected surge raises questions about the factors contributing to an unusually high number of listings so late in the year. There are various possible explanations, including changes in market conditions, seasonal adjustments, or shifts in buyer or seller behavior, all of which could be influencing this sudden increase. Given the typical trend of decreasing listings as the year winds down, many are now pondering whether this spike is the beginning of a new seasonal pattern or perhaps a reaction to broader economic conditions affecting seller urgency or inventory management.

Ultimately, it remains unclear whether this recent jump in listings will mark a lasting change or will fade as a minor blip in the housing market. Market watchers are left to wonder: is this a sign of a new trend in listing behaviors, or simply an insignificant short-term deviation? Time will tell if this is just a brief, unusual increase, or the onset of a new trend that could reshape the expectations for seasonal listing patterns.

“Duty, honor, country: Those three hallowed words reverently dictate what you ought to be, what you can be, what you will be.”
— General Douglas MacArthur

Have a great week everyone!