December’s headline job growth figure, released on Friday, suggests a robust labor market, though it is subject to revision in subsequent reports. The initial data showed strength in multiple areas, including increases in both full-time and part-time employment after declines in November. However, the report revealed some concerning trends, like the average duration of unemployment climbing to 23.7 weeks—the highest since April 2022! Additionally, Friday’s release of ADP’s Employment Report showed weaker-than-expected private sector job growth, with December adding only 122,000 jobs, marking the lowest since August. November’s job growth figure remained unrevised, keeping the spotlight on a cooling trend in the labor market. The bulk of December’s hiring came from the services sector and large businesses, as reported on Friday, with small businesses finally showing slight gains after previous losses. That’s an improvement! Wage growth moderated for both job-changers and job-stayers, with stayers experiencing the slowest wage growth since July 2021. Meanwhile, Friday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report highlighted a rise in job openings to 8.098 million, surpassing forecasts. However, a drop in both the hiring rate and the quit rate reflected underlying labor market weakness. Overcounting of remote job postings and a significant drop in the job openings to unemployment ratio further emphasized a labor market that’s cooling off. Friday’s unemployment claims data painted a mixed picture! Initial Jobless Claims fell during the holiday period while Continuing Claims rose to 1.867 million. This signals a persistent slowdown in hiring, with Continuing Claims staying above 1.8 million for over 30 weeks. Seasonal factors, like holiday travel, may have skewed the numbers, but the broader trend points to longer periods of unemployment as job opportunities become harder to find. On a brighter note, CoreLogic’s Home Price Index, also released Friday, showed that home prices were flat in November, with a forecasted annual appreciation of 3.8%—a big jump from previous expectations! This highlights real estate’s ongoing strength as a wealth-building tool. Looking ahead, several major economic indicators are on deck this week, including inflation data and housing reports. These updates will be crucial as they influence the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates. Following Friday’s strong job data, Mortgage Bonds faced downward pressure, testing key support levels and signaling potential shifts in financial markets. As labor market trends and housing data evolve, it’s clear that keeping an eye on these numbers will be key to understanding what’s next for the economy!"I believe there's an inner power that makes winners or losers." And the winners are the ones who really listen to the truth of their hearts."— Sylvester Stallone Have a great week everyone!

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This week marks a notable improvement in the real estate market for sellers compared to the previous month. Data from the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) reveals that 15 major cities have experienced an increase in their index over the past month, while only 2 have shown a decline. This positive shift is accompanied by significant market activity, including an unprecedented number of listings expiring at the end of the year—nearly 900 in total. These expirations reduced the number of active listings by approximately 550 and the number of temporary off-market listings by about 250, impacting overall inventory levels. The average change in the CMI over the past month is a robust +8.8%, building on last week’s +6.2% gain. However, the dramatic rise in expired listings has introduced some complexity to the market. The number of expirations this year is more than double what it was 12 months ago, contributing to a drop in the listing success rate, which has fallen below 65%. For comparison, the success rate stood at over 68% a year ago. As we exit the holiday season, the favorable seasonal trends that previously reduced supply have ended, and we expect the number of active listings to grow again. How long this trend lasts will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the market in 2025. Several cities are showing remarkable progress in their CMI scores. Tempe, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Chandler, Scottsdale, Peoria, and Gilbert have all posted double-digit percentage improvements, with Goodyear and Glendale close behind. However, not all cities are benefiting from these positive trends. Maricopa and Surprise have failed to show improvement and are still grappling with an imbalance between supply and demand. This underscores the varied dynamics across the market, with some areas thriving while others continue to face challenges. Currently, 9 cities are classified as seller’s markets, 3 as balanced markets, and 5 as buyer’s markets. The cities in buyer’s markets, such as Maricopa and Buckeye, are burdened by a surplus of inventory relative to demand. In contrast, the top-performing cities are characterized by limited supply and strong demand, particularly in more expensive areas. These pricier segments of the market are supported by active participation from wealthier buyers, who are helping to stabilize these areas despite broader fluctuations in inventory and listing success rates."A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new."– Albert Einstein Have a great week everyone!

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This week marks a notable improvement in the market for sellers compared to last month. Fourteen large cities have reported an increase in their Cromford® Market Index (CMI) over the past month, while only three have experienced a decline. This positive trend highlights a significant shift, with sellers gaining an edge in many areas.The average change in the CMI over the past month stands at +6.2%, a considerable increase from the +2.9% recorded last week. While this improvement is encouraging, it’s essential to view it in context. Much of the positive momentum is driven by seasonal supply reductions typical of December. Still, this year's 6.2% average improvement surpasses the 2.0% increase observed at the same time last year, offering a reason for optimism.Several cities have shown remarkable progress, with Tempe, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, and Gilbert leading the way with double-digit percentage increases. Chandler and Scottsdale are not far behind, demonstrating strong growth as well. In contrast, Cave Creek, Maricopa, and Surprise remain the only cities failing to show improvement, maintaining a consistent trend.Currently, the market composition includes nine cities categorized as seller's markets, three as balanced markets, and five as buyer's markets. This distribution reflects the shifting dynamics and continued opportunities for sellers to benefit in an increasingly favorable market environment."What you get by achieving your goals is not as important as what you become by achieving your goals."-Zig Ziglar Have a great week everyone!

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