The brief surge in demand observed during September is beginning to wane, with the number of listings under contract now somewhat lower than in late September. Meanwhile, active supply continues to grow in line with seasonal patterns. This gradual increase in inventory is slowly shifting negotiation power into the hands of buyers. If this trend persists without any significant changes, we are likely headed toward a buyer's market. The Cromford Market Index (CMI) has already dropped below 94, a level that typically indicates a market favoring buyers. This decline suggests that current conditions are beginning to tilt away from sellers, providing buyers with more leverage. Under normal circumstances, we anticipate supply to rise throughout October and well into November. However, after Thanksgiving, the supply usually starts to fade, closing the year at noticeably lower levels. This seasonal reduction in supply could potentially impact market dynamics as we move into the new year. Given these trends, buyers may find increasing opportunities for negotiation in the coming weeks, while sellers might need to adjust their expectations accordingly. Monitoring these market developments will be crucial for all stakeholders as we approach the year's end.Rates have been stabilizing in the mid 6's so we will see if this remains while we enter into the election cycle and see how the markets react afterwards into the holidays. “Real integrity is doing the right thing, knowing that nobody’s going to know whether you did it or not.”― Oprah Winfrey Have a great week everyone!

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In September 2024, Maricopa County's real estate market witnessed a noticeable decline in closed transactions for single-family homes and townhouses/condos, as revealed by the recently analyzed affidavits of value. The total number of closed transactions stood at 5,584, marking a decrease of 5.3% from the 5,896 transactions recorded in September 2023 and a 6.4% drop from August 2024. This decline is particularly significant considering there were 21 working days in September 2024 compared to 20 in September 2023; under consistent daily closing rates, an increase of 5.0% would have been anticipated. New home sales were notably impacted, with 1,441 closed transactions—a sharp decline of 11.3% from the 1,624 closings in September 2023 and a slight 0.8% decrease from August 2024. Resale transactions also fell, albeit less dramatically, with 4,143 closings representing a 3.0% drop from 4,272 in September 2023 and an 8.2% decrease from the previous month. Despite these declines, the new home market share remained robust at 25.8% in September 2024, though this is a reduction from 27.5% a year earlier. Amid declining transaction volumes, median sales prices demonstrated resilience. The overall median sales price in September 2024 was $471,995, reflecting a 4.9% increase from September 2023 and a modest 0.4% rise from August 2024. The median sales price for resale homes held steady at $450,000, up 2.3% from the previous year but unchanged from the prior month. New homes experienced a more substantial increase in median sales price, reaching $518,792—an 8.3% rise from September 2023 and a 1.0% uptick from August 2024. However, it's noteworthy that the combined peak median sales price remains at $490,000, achieved in May 2022, indicating current prices are still 3.7% below that peak. The data paints a picture of low transaction volumes coupled with stable pricing, suggesting a market with a slight excess of supply over demand. Looking ahead, there's an expectation for a modest improvement in transaction volumes and for prices to remain stable, albeit with a slight downward tendency due to current market conditions. While the market faces challenges in sales volume, the stability in pricing offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for Maricopa County's real estate sector.Rates jumped back up to about 6.5% Friday afternoon so we will have to keep an eye if they keep rising. I think they will continue to hover around this point up until the election or if whispers start if the Fed is looking to cut rates again any time soon and by how much.“What you lack in talent can be made up with desire, hustle, and giving 110% all the time.”– Don Zimmer Have a great week everyone!

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The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index numbers were published this Tuesday, offering valuable insights into the housing market across 20 major U.S. cities. This index is a key indicator for economists, investors, and policymakers, as it reflects trends in home prices that can influence economic decisions and strategies. The data serves as a critical barometer for understanding regional and national shifts in the real estate market, offering a snapshot of economic health and consumer confidence. The new report covers home sales during the period from May to July 2024, which means the typical home sale closed in mid-June—over three months ago. It's important to note that Case-Shiller data is inherently lagging; even on the day of its release, it represents market conditions from the recent past rather than current dynamics. This time lag should be considered when interpreting the data, as more recent trends or shifts influenced by factors such as interest rate changes or economic events occurring after mid-June may not be fully captured. Comparing the latest figures to the previous month's series reveals some notable changes. Last month, all 20 cities showed rising prices, but this month, eight of them experienced declines. Cities like Cleveland (+1.10%), Las Vegas (+0.88%), and New York (+0.52%) led in price increases, while San Francisco (-1.09%), San Diego (-0.58%), and Denver (-0.40%) saw the most significant decreases. Phoenix notably rose from 15th to 11th place, aligning closely with the national average monthly increase of +0.10%. The Northern cities, Las Vegas, and the Southeast remain the strongest regions in terms of price growth. Examining year-over-year changes, all 20 cities reported positive price movements compared to one year ago, with the national average standing at +5.0%. New York (+8.8%) and Las Vegas (+8.2%) topped the list, indicating robust growth. Phoenix maintained its 15th-place position with a +2.9% change, placing it in the bottom half and well below the national average—a trend consistent over the past five months. Denver (+1.3%) and Portland (+0.8%) remained at the bottom. Las Vegas's strong performance in both monthly and yearly comparisons underscores its resilience in the current housing market. Compared with the previous month's numbers, we see the following changes: Cleveland +1.10% Las Vegas +0.88% New York +0.52% Chicago +0.45% Detroit +0.39% Miami +0.31% Charlotte +0.23% Atlanta +0.15% Minneapolis +0.14% Washington +0.11% Phoenix +0.09% Boston +0.03% Portland -0.01% Seattle -0.05% Tampa -0.10% Dallas -0.11% Los Angeles -0.28% Denver -0.40% San Diego -0.58% San Francisco -1.09% Comparing year over year, we see the following changes: New York +8.8% Las Vegas +8.2% Los Angeles +7.2% San Diego +7.2% Cleveland +7.0% Chicago +6.7% Detroit +6.6% Boston +6.5% Miami +6.5% Seattle +6.0% Charlotte +5.8% Washington +5.5% Atlanta +4.5% San Francisco +3.4% Phoenix +2.9% Tampa +2.2% Minneapolis +2.0% Dallas +1.9% Denver +1.3% Portland +0.8% "Quality is not an act; it is a habit." — Aristotle Have a great week everyone!

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